When two SEC heavyweights with identical records collide, instinct says it should be a toss-up. ESPN’s computer, however, disagrees. Thursday night’s women’s college basketball showdown between LSU Tigers and Texas Longhorns carries real postseason weight, and ESPN Analytics has already drawn a clear line.

According to ESPN Analytics, Texas enters the matchup with a 63 percent chance to defeat LSU at the Moody Center. It is the only game this season in which LSU has not been favored, a notable shift for a team that has spent most of the year on the right side of projections.

That number is not cosmetic. ESPN’s model suggests the winner of this game becomes roughly a coin flip to claim at least a share of the SEC title. The loser, meanwhile, would see its margin for error disappear with Selection Sunday approaching.

Both teams arrive with identical 21–2 overall records, yet the SEC landscape adds urgency. South Carolina Gamecocks currently sit atop the conference standings, meaning every result beneath them carries ripple effects.

Texas and LSU have already crossed paths once this season. That meeting ended Texas’ unbeaten run, with LSU handing the Longhorns their first loss before South Carolina narrowly added a second soon after. Thursday offers Texas a chance to reset that narrative at home.

LSU, meanwhile, enters riding momentum. After suffering back-to-back losses earlier in conference play, Kim Mulkey’s team stabilized and reasserted itself as a title threat. Their previous win over Texas was built on physicality, particularly on the offensive glass.

In that earlier matchup, LSU grabbed 19 offensive rebounds compared to 11 for Texas, a disparity that ultimately tilted the game. That edge remains a focal point heading into the rematch.

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The ESPN Analytics SEC metric doesn’t account for schedule strength

On paper, 21–2 tells the same story. In context, it does not. Texas navigated a demanding non-conference slate before SEC play began. The Longhorns faced Richmond, UCLA, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Baylor, winning all five games. That stretch hardened Texas early and tested them against multiple seeded-level opponents.

LSU’s non-conference road looked different. Duke stood out as the primary challenge before league play, with the rest of the schedule offering fewer early stress tests. The result is two teams with matching records built under very different conditions.

That contrast matters when evaluating ESPN’s projection. The model favors Texas despite LSU’s earlier head-to-head win, suggesting strength of performance across opponents is influencing the outcome more than a single result.

Thursday also places two of the sport’s most recognizable coaches on opposite sidelines. Kim Mulkey has built LSU into a relentless, physical force, while Vic Schaefer has shaped Texas into a disciplined, defensively anchored contender.

For Texas, the objective is clear. Protect the paint, limit second-chance points, and avoid allowing LSU’s physicality to dictate tempo. For LSU, the task is equally direct. Recreate the rebounding advantage and disrupt Texas’ offensive rhythm before the crowd can swing momentum.

ESPN’s computer sees Texas holding the edge. LSU has already proven projections can be beaten. Thursday night will decide which version matters more.