Fernando Mendoza capped off a perfect season as Indiana closed on a 27-21 win over Miami to complete a perfect 16-0 season. He was at the forefront of the Hoosiers’ historic title win, delivering exactly what Curt Cignetti asked of him in every critical situation. The Heisman Trophy winner finished college football’s biggest night as the sport’s most accomplished player, but Mendoza faces persistent doubts about his ceiling in the NFL.

“I do think trading the number one pick for a haul is almost always the right move if you have any doubt about the quarterback,” Danny Parkins said on Fox Sports’ First Things First. 

The Fox Sports’ analyst made the case that the Las Vegas Raiders should not rush to turn in the card for Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 overall. He acknowledged that most draft analysts expect the Hoosiers QB to go first, partly because of his resume and partly because of a thin QB class. But he also noted the concern that evaluators continue to check.

“That he is not a Drake May level athlete, that he is not a natural talent like Caleb,” Parkins continued. “There are some questions about Mendoza’s ceiling in the pros.” 

Fernando Mendoza threw for 3,349 yards with 41 touchdowns and six interceptions. In the CFP, he was nearly flawless, recording eight TD passes with just five incompletions. Indiana won because it consistently made correct decisions under pressure, from early downs to late-game moments that defined the postseason.

The defining sequence came late in the fourth quarter of the championship game. With points available, Curt Cignetti passed on a field goal and entrusted his QB to end it. Fernando Mendoza responded with 12 yards for the game-winning score. Watching from the sidelines was Tom Brady, whose reaction quickly went viral. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler captured the moment with a short caption, “Tom approves.” 

Tom Brady’s approval carries weight because he is now a minority owner of the Raiders. Las Vegas holds the No. 1 pick after a difficult 2025 season. He has publicly praised Fernando Mendoza throughout the season, pointing to his leadership, command, and growth from Cal to Indiana. On Fox NFL Sunday, he described him as relatable and credited him with lifting a program that had struggled for relevance. 

QB need is not debatable in Las Vegas. Geno Smith struggled after arriving as a free agent, finishing 27th in the NFL with a 34.1 QB rating. He also turned 35 in October, making him a short-term solution at best. USA TODAY Sports currently projects Fernando Mendoza as the Raiders’ selection at No. 1 overall. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr., who previously ranked Oregon’s Dante Moore ahead, now has the Indiana QB clearly atop his board after Moore chose to return to school.

That momentum has created a clear divide among draft experts on Mendoza and a path forward for the Raiders.

The split for Fernando Mendoza and the solution

Draft analyst Joe DeLeone described Fernando Mendoza as a worthy high pick but not a typical first-overall talent. The comparison to Jared Goff continues to surface. He was not an elite physical prospect either, but his touch and decision-making justified the LA Rams trading up to build around him. That comparison reassures some teams while reinforcing hesitation for others.

A-Z Sports’ Ryan Roberts framed the concern more bluntly. Fernando Mendoza can operate effectively when the surrounding structure is solid, but there are questions about whether he elevates a broken roster. That concern matters because top picks usually land on bad teams.

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“I like Mendoza as a quarterback, but I just can’t get to the point of loving him as a prospect,” he said. “There’s just something missing.”

That context explains why the NFL Combine has become more than a formality. Despite a brief social media rumor suggesting the Indiana QB would skip the event for a Wall Street internship, the report was traced back to a parody account. 

Fernando Mendoza is expected to attend the Combine in Indianapolis, where more than 300 prospects and representatives from all 32 teams will gather. The week will be about addressing why doubt still exists after a Heisman Trophy, a national championship, and the first 16-0 season in modern college football history.