The upcoming week-4 clash is one of the most anticipated clashes in the 2025 season. Both these teams enter the game unbeaten and nationally ranked. You have one at No. 9 and the other at No. 19. This makes it the second time since 1950 that these border rivals face off both ranked. This rivalry dates back to 1899. It has deep roots with 73 total football meetings. That said, Illinois boasts one of the Big Ten’s stingiest defenses, allowing just 7.3 points per game. On the other hand, Indiana counters with a potent offense averaging 52 points per contest, fueled by dynamic talents like QB Fernando Mendoza.

But here’s the twist that’s got fans talking: Joel Klatt, the sharp FOX Sports analyst, is predicting a massive upset in this matchup on his show. “Indiana [is] the favorite by five and a half,” Klatt said. “That surprised me, by the way.” Klatt also trusts Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer’s calm, mistake-free play under pressure to guide the Illini in critical moments. His prediction? Illinois is winning 24-21, taking the points against the spread. But who has the edge? “Luke Altmyer has been really good. He’s got a lot of Rocco Becht in him,” Klatt said.

Altmyer brings that calm and efficient style that Becht is known for. He’s already ravaged 709 yards, thrown 8 touchdowns with zero interceptions in 2025, showing incredible poise and precision. What’s striking is Altmyer’s ability to remain composed under pressure and deliver in clutch moments. However, there is a varied playstyle to these teams. “Even though Indiana has run the ball insanely effective so far this year,” Klatt added. “They want to play a little bit more uptempo, spread out RPO style of game. That doesn’t mean that they won’t run the football, but it’s a little bit more wide open. Whereas Illinois is going to want to drag this game down, make it a little bit of a slower game, and try to play the physical card with Indiana.”

Indiana’s offense this year has been a fascinating blend of old-school power running. Even though they’ve racked up insane rushing numbers with backs like Roman Hemby and Lee Beebe Jr., the Hoosiers want to stretch the field more and speed things up. This style means more quick reads, more spacing, and more opportunities for Mendoza to make plays in open space, highlighting the RPO’s option to run or throw based on defensive reactions. Plus, Indiana’s revamped offensive line, featuring veterans like Carter Smith and Pat Coogan, gives them a sturdy foundation to both protect Mendoza and clear running lanes. Illinois, however, plans to bring a contrasting vibe.

Head coach Bret Bielema is a disciple of the physical, grind-it-out style, and Illinois wants to slow the game down. And the defense is the only way to do that. “The Illinois defense is a very good defense,” Klatt added. “Aaron Henry is their defensive coordinator, and he will bring pressure.” Illinois’ defense this season has been a force to reckon with, and they know exactly how to impose their will. One of the keys for Illinois this week is putting relentless pressure on Fernando Mendoza, who has been silky smooth when untouched. Mendoza boasts a spectacular stat line with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. But when defenders like Illinois’ Gabe Jacas pressure him, his accuracy plummets from 76.1% to just 36.4%. That’s the kind of edge this defense wants to exploit.

Klatt also doesn’t let go of Mendoza, as he mentions that “Mendoza has been solid this year.” See, Aaron Henry’s been tracking Mendoza since his Cal days, and he doesn’t hold back calling him “an NFL quarterback.” Just check out Mendoza’s recent stat line: 270 yards on 19-of-20 passing with six touchdowns in just two quarters against Indiana State. That kind of accuracy and ability to split defenders, like Mendoza did with a 31-yard TD despite tight coverage, shows why Henry is extra cautious. This weekend’s matchup is a big deal for Illinois’ secondary, which features veterans like All-Big Ten corner Xavier Scott and safety Miles Scott. But Joel Klatt, on the other hand, seems extremely optimistic about the Fighting Illini.

“I don’t know if the Hoosiers are as good as they were a year ago,” Klatt concluded. “I just don’t. And it shocked me because I think Illinois wins the game outright.” 

Bloomington will be a season-defining clash!

Illinois stands at a crucial crossroads this 2025 season, and Saturday’s showdown against Indiana could be the game that defines its College Football Playoff (CFP) hopes. Joel Klatt summed it up perfectly. “This game is a massive game for playoff implications,” Klatt said. “The winner of this game sets themselves up with the schedule that they each have in the Big 10 to be the third or fourth playoff team out of the Big 10.”

Illinois has the chance to surge forward with a victory over the Hoosiers. That’ll potentially set the program up for an 11-1 regular-season record. Beating Indiana is huge. ESPN Analytics gives Indiana a 62.8% chance to win the game, highlighting just how tough this road trip to Bloomington will be for Illinois. But a win here keeps Illinois in the thick of the Big Ten title race. According to projections, Illinois’ chance to reach the Big Ten title game jumps from a mere 3% to an encouraging 14% with a victory in this game.

Given how crucial the Big Ten championship is for CFP entry, this is no small feat. What makes this all so compelling is where Illinois goes from here. The schedule ahead isn’t easy, with looming matchups against USC, Ohio State, and others that could tempt fate. But if Illinois can handle Indiana, their record and résumé become stacked with significant wins. An 11-1 season with a win over a ranked rival like Indiana would turn heads in November and December when the committee evaluates resumes.