Funkytown had seen better days. After TCU’s fairytale run to the national title game in 2022, the wheels came flying off in 2023. The Frogs crashed to a 5–7 record and were quickly written off as a team that just got hot once. Then came Josh Hoover’s gunslinging era in 2024. Josh Hoover had folks in Fort Worth believing again. The TCU QB lit it up for nearly 4,000 yards and led the Frogs to a 9-4 rebound season. The narrative shifted: Max Duggan 2.0? But there’s one thing that is still holding Hoover back from breaking through to elite territory for the big 2025.

Josh Hoover threw for 3,949 yards and 27 touchdowns under OC Kendal Briles in 2024. Big-time production, no doubt. But he also tossed 11 picks, tied for the most fumbles lost by a QB in the FBS (six), and racked up 17 turnovers total. That’s not a red flag; that’s a flashing siren. And this isn’t just a media hit job—TCU insider Stephen Simcox called it out plain as day on the Locked On Horned Frogs podcast.

“I want to focus on Josh Hoover today,” he started. “If there are two things that Josh can really improve on this offseason… one is taking care of the ball better, limiting those turnovers.” Spot on. If we rewatch the tape against SMU and Texas Tech, Hoover threw 2 picks in each. Those weren’t just poor reads. There were issues with footwork, locking onto targets, and straight-up panic decisions. Mix in red-zone fumbles against Utah and Stanford, and you start seeing a trend that could cost TCU big games. What’s worse? Hoover led all FBS QBs in fumbles lost. That’s… not very great.

Simcox didn’t stop there. He turned up the heat with another concern: the complete lack of a run game from Hoover. “The other thing is becoming more of a running threat or becoming more of a threat in the run game. That’s not something he’s comfortable with. It’s not something that’s come natural to him,” Simcox added. “And last season, there were times where even some of the basic zone-read and RPO ball-handling skills—he struggled with those.” Translation: Josh Hoover does not need to play like Lamar Jackson, but he has to show something.

Hoover’s 2024 rushing stat line tells the full story: 47 rushing attempts, -19 yards. Yes—negative yardage. Sure, he punched in 4 rushing TDs, but most of those came on short-yardage or QB sneak plays. His hesitance at the mesh point, especially in red-zone spots, killed multiple drives. The actual danger of him pulling the ball and tucking it? Nonexistent.

However, TCU’s O-line didn’t do him many favors either. They ranked near the bottom nationally in run-blocking, averaging just over 3 yards per carry. That meant Hoover had to throw. And he did—a lot. But when defenses know what’s coming, turnovers follow. It’s the classic setup: talented QB, shaky line, and no run game equals turnover-prone chaos.

But there’s a silver lining. In the second half of 2024, Hoover cleaned it up—fewer risky throws, smarter reads, and better control. Now he just needs to complete the package. If he tightens his handle and adds just some run-game threat, the ceiling? Top-tier Big 12 gunslinger and Heisman run.

Heisman fate for Josh Hoover if he keeps turnovers under control?

The potential of Josh Hoover is on another level. He might be a dark horse Heisman contender in 2025. Seriously. On June 17, the Cover 3 Podcast hosts were kicking around Heisman long shots, and Chip Patterson threw down this take: “I think Josh Hoover could put up crazy stats and put together one of those types of arguments.”

He compared Hoover’s potential to Robert Griffin III and Johnny Manziel. Not because Hoover is a household name, but because stats matter more than helmets when it comes to the Heisman. Back in 2011, RG3 won the trophy after putting up 4,293 yards and 37 TDs at Baylor. Manziel followed in 2012 with 4,600+ total yards and 45 touchdowns. It wasn’t about being blueblood. It was about lighting defenses on fire. “You can win the Heisman without being at one of the bluest of blue bloods,” Patterson said. “Josh Hoover was one that definitely jumped out to me.”

Even CBS Sports listed Hoover at +25000 on their 2025 Heisman oddsboard. Yeah, it’s a long shot. But those odds smell a lot like 2022 Max Duggan. Remember? Duggan nearly won the thing after dragging TCU to the title game. This year, Hoover might not have the same national buzz, yet—but if he chops those turnovers in half? Game on.

Tom Fornelli added context: “Duggan still finished second place, but there’s a very large gap between him and Caleb Williams.” But he acknowledged the model. Stats carry weight. Hoover’s got crazy weapons, a solid play-caller in Kendal Briles, and some winnable games on the schedule. What’s left? Holding onto the football.  TCU’s not resting either. They brought in serious firepower this offseason—USC transfer WR Joseph Manjack and WR Jordan Dwyer boost an already legit receiver room. Terry Shelton and true freshman QB Adam Schobel are waiting in the wings. The recruiting class? Highest rated in school history.

Vegas has TCU at +1100 to win the Big 12, putting them in that second-tier dark horse zone. The only thing holding Hoover back? Turnovers. If he locks those down, keeps bombing for 300 a game, and cuts the fumbles, then Heisman talk won’t be a hot take anymore. It’ll be the reality.