Houston’s move to the Big 12 was rough; they went from 8 wins in the AAC to only 4 wins for two seasons straight. The Cougars hit rock bottom on offense—averaging just 14 points per game and barely managing 152 passing yards. That ranked 133rd out of 134 FBS programs. But a quiet confidence is building in H-Town now. And it starts under center.

As spring football wrapped at the University of Houston, new quarterback Conner Weigman looked relaxed—and relieved. “Ah, finally, healthy,” he said. “Body feels the best it’s felt in a long time.” That’s a major win already for Cougar fans. After dealing with a shoulder injury last year and playing only four games in 2023 at Texas A&M due to a leg injury, the former five-star quarterback is finally ready to lead. And the hope is he’ll lead big.

Weigman was Houston’s biggest offseason pickup in a massive portal overhaul led by second-year head coach Willie Fritz. With a revamped offense and a healthy QB1, Cougar fans are hoping that 2025 is the season the rebuild truly starts to show results.

On the June 19 episode of the Cover 3 Podcast, Chip Patterson offered up a bold prediction—and it centered on Houston and their new signal-caller. While discussing potential surprise teams for 2025, Patterson singled out the Cougars, despite their 4–8 record last year.

“Houston went 5–7 last year and kind of was a chaos team,” Patterson began. “As I mentioned, they had zero offensive touchdowns in three different conference games, but they also beat Kansas State, and they also beat Utah. What? Now, they had an absolute negative offensively—like, their offense took a snap and hurt the team every single time they snapped the ball. Offensively, last year, Houston was lowering its ability to win, but defensively, they were pretty stout. And I think that they still are going to be pretty stout defensively.”

Then came the big Conner Weigman statement: “I think that Conner Weigman—regardless of whether he did or did not meet expectations, and probably did not at Texas A&M—I still think the best of Conner Weigman is capable of getting into the Big 12, going up against Big 12 defenses, and being successful,” said Patterson.

And it’s not just Weigman. Houston attacked the portal and brought in more than a dozen offensive players. Six of them are projected starters: WR Amare Thomas (UAB), TE Tanner Koziol (Ball State), OT Dalton Merryman (Texas Tech), and guards Jason Brooks Jr. (Oklahoma State) and Matthew Wykoff (Cal). A fresh offensive line, new weapons, and a top-tier QB give Houston a shot to flip the script.

Now, it isn’t just about talents—it is also about timing and matchups. Patterson added: “When I look at the Houston conference schedule—there is no Utah, no Kansas State, no Iowa State, no BYU, no Kansas. I mean, Iowa State, BYU, these are not just the teams that I mentioned that they don’t play—are not just, you know, teams that we normally expect to be among the tougher outs in the league. They also are some of the toughest road trips—to Provo, to Salt Lake City, to Manhattan, to Ames—and so you don’t have any of that.” In other words, the Cougars got a break on the schedule—and with Weigman leading the charge, they might be ready to take advantage.

Patterson sees real upside. “I think we see a three-win improvement this year. I think this can be an 8–4 team with steps forward offensively and trusting Willie Fritz.” That’s a major turnaround prediction—but one that’s rooted in logic. The schedule helps. The defense is solid. And the quarterback is better than anything Houston has had in years. Still, not everyone is convinced.

Willie Fritz’s Big 12 reality check

One anonymous Big 12 coach speaking to Athlon Sports wasn’t ready to buy into the hype just yet. “Fritz isn’t a guy who rushes anything,” the coach said. “I think this year is a step in the right direction, but they’re still a year off.” And that might be fair. Houston is still adjusting to Big 12 life. The Cougars stumbled through Dana Holgorsen’s final year and then posted just four wins in Fritz’s debut season. This is a long-term build, and Fritz has done this before.

With successful rebuilds at five different schools, Willie Fritz earned his Power Four shot because of his proven ability to turn struggling programs around. While he’s a former DBs coach, his calling card has always been offense. That made 2024’s performance even more frustrating. That’s why Fritz went back to his roots—bringing longtime offensive partner Slade Nagle back and landing Conner Weigman to run a system more in line with the successful Tulane days.

“It’s all about the offense,” said one Big 12 coach. “Willie [Fritz] went back to what he knows, bringing Slade [Nagle] back onto the staff. They grabbed [Conner] Weigman. And they’re going to look a lot more like those Tulane systems from a few years ago.” But the line remains a concern.

Last season, the Cougars’ offensive front was one of the worst in the conference—and Big 12 coaches haven’t forgotten. “It’s all about how well they can start on offense,” said another coach. “This was the worst O-line in our league. Easy to hassle the QB, not very tough up front.”

There’s a silver lining, though. Houston’s defense held its own in Year 1 and is expected to improve again. “Defensively, they did a lot of stuff really well in the first year,” said one coach. “And they’ve built on that in recruiting.”

So, what’s next? Houston opens the 2025 season on August 28 against Stephen F. Austin, followed by a home showdown against Colorado to kick off Big 12 play on September 12. By then, we’ll know if Patterson’s bold take on Conner Weigman holds water—or if Fritz’s rebuild needs more time in the oven.