Three years away from the sideline didn’t dull his edge. Dan Mullen is back, and he didn’t just dip a toe—he cannonballed straight into the UNLV pool. The man who once bossed around SEC defenses is now rocking Rebels red, and the verdict? Let’s just say it’s looking a whole lot like redemption season in Vegas.

After a stint of diagnosing the game from ESPN’s studios, Dan Mullen’s return to coaching came with a twist few saw coming. Mullen pulled a power move and took over at UNLV, following Barry Odom’s departure to Purdue. The former Mississippi State and Florida head coach low-key traded analyst grind for Sin City shine. And the response? All gas, no brakes. On June 21, Steven Lassan of Athlon Sports handed Mullen a straight-up A grade. No doubt, Dan Mullen’s December hire was one of the most “interesting hires” of the cycle.

“After going 20–8 the past two seasons, UNLV is well-positioned to take that next step,” Lassan wrote. “Known for his prolific offenses, Mullen has two (mostly) successful head-coaching stints on his résumé.” That résumé speaks for itself: 69 wins at Mississippi State (a program that’s usually allergic to relevance), 34 wins at Florida—including an SEC title game appearance—and a 103–61 record overall.

He didn’t hesitate when the UNLV offer came knocking. Why? Because Vegas has weapons and world-class facilities (not casino): “The facility here blows away anything that was at Florida when I left,” Mullen said earlier this year via CFB with DP. “We blow them out of the water facility-wise.” Well, he’s not wrong. The Rebels share Allegiant Stadium with the Raiders. The campus facilities? Apparently next-level.

But Mullen’s no dreamer. He knows Odom didn’t leave a mess. In fact, the bar’s been raised. Barry Odom had UNLV cooking, with a 19–8 record and two straight bowl trips. That’s huge for a program that saw just one bowl game in a 22-year stretch before his arrival.

Dan Mullen isn’t showing up to resuscitate a dead program, nor do they have time to do that. He’s here to drop nitro into something already emerging. “I said I’m not walking into a place that needs a giant rebuild,” he explained. “I’m walking into a place that needs to take the next step.” To do that, he raided the transfer portal like a man on a mission, bringing in 41 new players—headlined by former Michigan QB Alex Orji, who never really got his shine in Ann Arbor. Mullen, a dual-threat QB whisperer, could finally give Orji the keys he never got in maize and blue.

UNLV’s potential $18 million Pac-12 move: A red flag?

There’s a flip side to this whole glow-up. And it’s got dollar signs all over it. While Dan Mullen was handed the keys to the Rebel-mobile, someone still has to pay for gas. And if UNLV really plans to bounce to the Pac-12? That fuel bill is sitting at a spicy $18 million.

That’s the exit fee from the Mountain West Conference. That’s the price of ambition. And folks are wondering: is it worth it?

Steve Cofield, UNLV sideline analyst, dropped some truth bombs on a recent 365 Sports episode. He posed the big question fans are asking: “Do you think the Pac-12 is where most fans would want to be?” He didn’t sugarcoat the answer either: “I’d say support to go to the Pac-12… maybe 60/40.” Not exactly unanimous. And the 40%? They are not hating—they’re just watching the money.

“Is the Pac-12 a gigantic step up?” Cofield asked. “Does it lead… to get into whatever the Power Four looks like automatically? I don’t think so.” Boom. There it is. The reality check. Sure, the Pac-12 name still rings bells, but it’s not the powerhouse it once was. With the conference being rebuilt from the rubble of TV deals and broken alliances, it’s no longer a golden ticket.

Money’s the name of the game. UNLV’s got some sweet backing, but they’re also loading up debt to keep up with the Joneses. Cofield spilled that the Mountain West basically “bent over” to keep UNLV and Air Force around, throwing cash their way. But there’s a catch: that money depends on how the Pac-12 lawsuit plays out. So it’s not exactly liquid gold yet.

The smarter move, according to Cofield and a solid chunk of the fanbase? Chill. Let the CFP open up more Group of Five slots. Own the Mountain West, stack wins, and get that playoff invite on your own terms. “If they have the money in hand from the Mountain West,” Cofield said, “they’ll be fine. And they can kind of make their way in a lesser Mountain West and potentially still get into the CFP.”

So while Mullen builds up the squad and Allegiant shines like a diamond, the next step might not be a big leap. It might be a smart pause. Because this Vegas story isn’t about flashy bets. It’s about knowing when to cash in. And right now, UNLV’s holding a pretty good hand — maybe even a slightly better one than the Pac-12.