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Essentials Inside The Story

  • Chiefs OC Matt Nagy viewed as a "serious candidate" for the Titans' HC role
  • For the first time since 2014, the Chiefs are out of the playoffs
  • Kansas City has the lowest explosive rush rate since 2000 (2.6%)

The Tennessee Titans are hunting for their next head coach. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs are just trying to fix an offense that suddenly looks ordinary. Those two storylines might collide in a way Chiefs head coach Andy Reid doesn’t really need right now. As per NFL insider Dianna Russini, one coaching move by the Titans could have massive repercussions for the Chiefs.

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Since the Titans parted ways with Brian Callahan and handed the reins to interim head coach Mike McCoy, the search has begun. General Manager Mike Borgonzi and President of Football Operations Chad Brinker have been on the hunt for a coach who can end their team’s losing streak next season. And the answer could come in the form of Chiefs’ offensive coordinator Matt Nagy.

“Chiefs offensive coordinator Matt Nagy is viewed internally as a serious candidate,” writes Russini. “Nagy will be in Nashville on Sunday with Kansas City, but NFL rules state there can’t be any job discussions.”

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Nagy is much more than a candidate at this point. Titans GM Borgonzi has spent more than a decade in Kansas City’s front office and knows that system inside out. Meanwhile, Nagy’s experience spans more than two decades, including 4 years as the head coach for the Chicago Bears. If he takes up the head coach duties again, it won’t be unfamiliar territory. 

All of this adds an unexpected layer to the upcoming Week 16 clash between the Chiefs and the Titans. The coach the Titans might be courting will be in Nashville, game-planning to beat them, and everyone has to pretend it is just another week. But the Titans have more names on their list.

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“Tennessee also plans to reach out to several defensive coordinators,” adds Russini. “Including the Indianapolis Colts’ Lou Anarumo, the Green Bay Packers’ Jeff Hafley, the Jacksonville Jaguars Anthony Campanile, the [Los Angeles] RamsChris Shula, the Houston Texans Matt Burke and the [Los Angeles] Chargers’ Jesse Minter.

But this is where it loops back to Nagy again. With defensive-minded candidates, the first question out of Tennessee’s mouth is about offense: who’s your coordinator, what does the staff look like, how are you fixing this side of the ball? Nagy, or another Chiefs assistant, can end up as the answer even if he doesn’t get the big job.

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But for Andy Reid, all of this is a problem. The Titans are basically shopping for the kind of offensive brain you need to keep in-house. Whether Nagy leaves as a head coach or as somebody’s coordinator, the risk is the same. The Chiefs might lose a key voice at the exact moment their offense needs surgery, not subtraction. 

Andy Reid and Matt Nagy’s offense hits a wall

For the first time since 2014, the Chiefs are out of the playoffs. The Super Bowl regulars are suddenly home in January, with an eliminated group processing what went wrong and what has to change around quarterback Patrick Mahomes. If Matt Nagy stays next season, he knows exactly what needs to be fixed. 

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They need to start with the run game, which has been a flat line all season. Heading into Week 15 against the Los Angeles Chargers, the Chiefs had the lowest explosive rush rate on running back carries for any team in a season since 2000 at just 2.6%. Once a drive-setter, the ground game turned into empty calories that never scare defenses.

You could see it against the Chargers. Kareem Hunt, Isiah Pacheco, and rookie Brashard Smith could only combine for 34 rushing yards in 19 carries. Nothing popped, nothing tilted the field. The defense kept daring KC to run, but the Chiefs still couldn’t make them pay.

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Patrick Mahomes had adjusted by speeding everything up. Not only was the franchise quarterback rushing more than ever before, but he also led the league in attempts and completions on throws, getting out in under 1.5 seconds. Instead of living in those layered, deep-developing shots that used to bury teams, KC banked more on quick-game mode. It was less magic, more survival. And the protection didn’t help either.

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In that same Chargers loss, L.A. never blitzed them on 35 dropbacks, and still generated pressure on 49% of them. Under heat, Mahomes went just 4-of-10 with a pick, and the offense looked stuck between protecting him and actually pushing the ball. The killer, though, has been in the red zone.

Mahomes threw a career-high four red zone interceptions this season, including a brutal pick on third-and-12 against the Chargers that wiped out a chance at a game-tying kick. These were the moments that used to feel automatic. Now, they feel more like coin flips.

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Stack all of that up, and you get a team that went 1-7 in one-score games and never found a go-to answer when drives bogged down. That’s where Matt Nagy’s future really stings. Andy Reid either keeps him and hands him the toughest offseason of his Chiefs tenure, or watches him walk and has to rewire this offense on the fly. Next season will say a lot about whether this was a drop or the start of something heavier in the Chiefs’ dynasty.

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