Michael Penix Jr Predicted to Achieve Where Kirk Cousins Failed as Falcons Clear Demand From QB

For a city that’s felt the sting of playoff absence since 2017, the promise of a new quarterback isn’t just about arm talent; it’s about redemption. The Falcons, a team that finished sixth in yards per game last year with a hobbled Kirk Cousins, are now placing their faith in the left arm of Michael Penix Jr. The hope is that Penix Jr achieves the one thing that ultimately eluded the veteran: a complete, explosive, and most importantly, successful season that ends the drought.

The demand from the Falcons’ brass to Penix is clear: elevate this offense from statistically respectable to legitimately dominant. Analytics give the Falcons a 38.2 percent chance to make the postseason, a bet placed squarely on the offense’s shoulders. As The Athletic’s Josh Kendall notes, if the Falcons break their dry spell, “it will be because of their offense.” And what an offense it is, a unit that finished 369.8 in yards per game and 12th in offensive EPA per play (.04) last year, even with a hobbled Kirk Cousins.

So it’s a tall order, but the pieces are undeniably there. Bijan Robinson boasts top-five odds for Offensive Player of the Year, Drake London is poised for a potential receiving yards crown, and the addition of pass rushers like Leonard Floyd, Ruke Orhorhoro, and James Pearce Jr. can create havoc.

Penix Jr, who showed flashes of late-game magic with 723 yards in three starts last season, doesn’t need to be a superhero; he just needs to be the conductor for an orchestra of elite talent. Head coach Raheem Morris envisions an organic, unpredictable attack where the wealth is spread. “You want to just let them happen because it’s got to be the hot man,” Morris said, discussing his playmakers.

Meanwhile, Raheem Morris has also envisioned a different role for Kirk Cousins.

Kirk Cousins assumes the role of a mentor for Michael Penix Jr

Kirk Cousins, once considered among the most consistent QBs in the league, has seen his production dip dramatically, not eclipsing 667 yards in the last three seasons. He’s no longer the undeniable focal point, but in this new ecosystem, he could thrive as the beneficiary of defensive attention paid to others.

This entire shift was catalyzed by Cousins’ physical unraveling. After a strong 6-3 start last year, a hit in Week 10 changed everything. Cousins himself revealed, “I took a hit against the Saints… that messed with my shoulder and elbow. So now, I had the right ankle, the shoulder, the elbow — there was a lot I was working through.”

His subsequent dip from 18 TDs to a career-high 16 INTs opened the door for Michael Penix Jr. Now, Cousins assumes a new role as the league’s most seasoned backup. The situation, as passing game coordinator TJ Yates puts it, is “different in a different way. But I think it’s better just because Kirk has been an absolute pro in every part of the process so far in how much he helps Mike.”

This mentorship is key because the prediction for Penix is astronomically high. Kendall has boldly predicted that the second-year QB will throw for over 30 touchdowns, a mark only Matt Ryan has hit in a Falcons uniform and one that dwarfs Cousins’ 18 from a year ago. It’s a prediction that justifies the franchise’s monumental decision.  The Falcons are demanding he unlock the explosive potential of this offense and finally lead them back to the promised land. Where Cousins failed to finish the journey, Atlanta is betting everything that Penix Jr. can start a new one.