Kenneth Gainwell felt like a smart, low-risk pickup for the Pittsburgh Steelers in free agency last year. But the math could look different this time around. Coming off a career year, the running back is heading back into the free agency market with more leverage. And as hinted in the Steelers’ asked-and-answered section, bringing Gainwell back may not be straightforward, not for Pittsburgh, and not from the RB’s perspective either.

For a broader context, Gainwell has spent five seasons in the NFL but has rarely been a full-time starter. Across 83 regular-season games, he has just six starts. Even the 50 percent of offensive snaps he logged in his first year with Pittsburgh in 2025 marked a career high for a single season.

So when you line up the snaps and the starts, he profiles less as a traditional starter and more as a high-end complementary piece in Pittsburgh’s system. And that distinction matters. As the Steelers’ asked-and-answered section pointed out, how a team views a player often dictates how much they’re willing to pay him.

There’s no debate that Gainwell just had the best season of his career. But that doesn’t automatically translate to a massive extension from the Steelers. That’s why his value as an unrestricted free agent remains unsettled, just like the question of whether Pittsburgh will reinvest or pivot.

Adding to that uncertainty, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Gerry Dulac reported that the Steelers could move on from Gainwell during free agency.

“The Steelers are expecting running back Kenneth Gainwell, who led the team in receptions and was voted team MVP, and possibly veteran guard Isaac Seumalo to explore the possibility of signing elsewhere during the free-agent period,” Dulac wrote.

With free agency less than a couple of weeks away, if that scenario plays out, Gainwell would become the first player since Neil O’Donnell in 1996 to leave the Steelers after earning team MVP honors.

Nothing is official yet, but the financial layer is clear. Gainwell was a bargain, playing last season on a one-year, $1.79 million deal. This time around, he’s looking for something bigger. And there’s already a projected number attached to it.

The Steelers received the projected value for Kenneth Gainwell

Kenneth Gainwell is entering free agency after the best season of his five-year NFL career. He played every regular-season game for the Steelers, made two starts, caught 73 passes, and totaled 1,023 scrimmage yards, including 537 on the ground. That production alone pushes him into the conversation as one of the more intriguing backs on the market.

All this information naturally leads to the bigger question: what is his actual market value if the Steelers decide to bring him back or let him walk? The Athletic’s Daniel Popper recently broke down the top impending free agents at every position and attached contract projections to each.

For Gainwell, Popper projected a two-year deal worth $10 million. It’s a significant jump from the one-year, $1.79 million contract he signed last offseason. But statistically, he has a case. The volume, versatility, and durability all support a rise. And that’s why his 2026 outlook ultimately hinges on how Pittsburgh evaluates him internally.

There are, of course, layers to that decision. But General Manager Omar Khan sounded optimistic at the 2026 NFL Scouting Combine, saying the running back “knows we want him back.” That’s a strong public endorsement.

Still, optimism and cap allocation aren’t always aligned. A two-year, $10 million commitment to a back who hasn’t consistently been a full-time starter and has limited career snaps could complicate things. And that financial balancing act may ultimately determine whether Kenneth Gainwell stays in Pittsburgh or cashes in elsewhere.