Aaron Rodgers has taken a major financial leap with his latest one-year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers. After playing the 2025 season on a one-year, $13.65 million contract, the 42-year-old quarterback is returning on a new deal worth $22.5 million, with incentives that could push the total value to $25 million. But former Steelers star James Harrison does not believe Rodgers will cash in on those full incentives during the 2026 season, but with an added optimism.

“He (Rodgers) has a $2.5 million in incentives, and his contract with the Steelers now is, he must play 75% of the regular season snaps, and then he can earn the following: $625,000 for every playoff win, wild-card win, divisional, AFC, Super Bowl. I hate to say it, but he ain’t gonna get all this. He’s not gonna get all this,” Harrison said on the latest episode of his Deebo & Joe Podcast this week. “He ain’t gonna get no more than about $1.875M because when you’re No. 1, you don’t play till the divisional round. So, he’ll get $1.875M when it’s all said and done. Walk off into the sunset Super Bowl champion.”

Harrison is optimistic that Rodgers could lead the Steelers to the No. 1 seed and eventually a Super Bowl title. But if that scenario actually unfolds, Harrison believes Rodgers technically would not collect the full $2.5 million in incentives because of the first-round bye structure in his contract. Still, it is worth taking a closer look at how Rodgers’ incentive-heavy deal is actually set up on paper.

Rodgers’ contract reportedly includes $22 million in guaranteed money along with a $500K roster bonus. The bonus figure is split into two parts based on roster milestones. Rodgers will earn $250K if he is on the 90-man roster by August 7, while the remaining $250K kicks in if he makes the roster for Week 1, either on active or inactive status, bringing his guaranteed earnings to $22.5 million.

The remaining $2.5 million, however, is tied to a much more complicated playoff incentive structure, leading to Harrison’s skepticism. For those bonuses to even activate, Rodgers first needs to play at least 75% of Pittsburgh’s offensive snaps during the regular season.

If that threshold is reached, the 42-year-old QB would then earn an additional $625,000 for every playoff win. In the event the Steelers secure a first-round bye, he would automatically receive $625,000. But if Pittsburgh plays during Wild Card Weekend, Rodgers must also play at least 50% of the offensive snaps in that game to qualify for the payout.

From there, Rodgers would need the Steelers to win the divisional round, the AFC Championship Game, and eventually the Super Bowl, while also playing at least half the snaps in each. Only then would the contract reach its full $25 million value. But that’s where Harrison’s prediction becomes complicated.

The Steelers’ legend seemingly believes that if the Steelers secure a first-round bye, Rodgers would miss out on the extra $625K incentive since Pittsburgh would advance directly to the Divisional Round without playing on Wild Card Weekend.

However, there seems to be a conflict about Aaron Rodgers’ 2026 contract with differing reports from multiple sources. Some sources report that the quarterback would automatically earn that $625K bonus if the Steelers land the No. 1 seed and receive the first-round bye.

At the same time, while Harrison remains optimistic about Rodgers potentially lifting the Lombardi Trophy, that path is far from guaranteed. Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh failed to win a playoff game for nearly a decade. Even during the 2025 season, the Steelers brought Rodgers in, hoping the veteran quarterback could finally put an end to that postseason drought.

To Rodgers’ credit, he helped deliver a division title while throwing for 3,322 yards and 24 touchdowns during the regular season. But once again, Pittsburgh’s season ended with a Wild Card loss, this time against the Houston Texans.

The defeat eventually led to Tomlin stepping away from his role, while speculation quickly grew that Rodgers might also walk away rather than return for another season.

Instead, the Steelers pivoted by hiring Mike McCarthy, and soon after, Rodgers agreed to return for his 22nd season in the NFL. Whether he can finally help Pittsburgh end its playoff drought remains uncertain, and so is the status of his $2.5 million incentives.

At the same time, while the signal-caller is expected to play the final season of his career, James Harrison believes there is still one scenario where even that plan might not actually happen.

A scenario where Aaron Rodgers’ retirement could be “difficult”

“This is it.” Aaron Rodgers said when asked whether this would be his last season.

But James Harrison believes there is still one scenario where Rodgers’ retirement plans could suddenly change. Speaking on his Deebo & Joe podcast, the former Steelers linebacker said:

“If Aaron Rodgers is able to get out there and catch that lightning in a bottle and win a Super Bowl championship, in what is more likely than not this last year in the NFL, that’s storybook. That’s what you’re looking for. He’s looking for the storybook. But I will say this. If it happens and Aaron Rodgers win another championship, I think it’s gonna be difficult, if not damn near possible, for him to retire.”

At this stage of his career, Rodgers would obviously love to add another Super Bowl ring to his résumé. The 42-year-old quarterback has won just one championship, which ironically came against Pittsburgh during the 2010 season.

And while the Steelers are not exactly viewed as the strongest team in the division right now, the possibility of Rodgers delaying retirement after a title run is still an interesting thought.

At the same time, a storybook ending is probably something Rodgers himself has considered. We have seen similar endings before with Peyton Manning retiring after winning a Super Bowl with the Denver Broncos, while John Elway closed out his career with back-to-back championships in Denver.

Still, the way things currently stand, it feels highly unlikely Rodgers continues playing beyond the 2026 season. The quarterback has hinted at retirement multiple times over the years, and the fact that he is now married adds another layer to the idea that he could finally walk away in 2027 instead of returning for yet another season.