The grandstands of Churchill Downs are soon going to get packed with elegantly dressed spectators with their vibrant hats and heartfelt cheers, but the electric atmosphere faces a major threat. While the anticipation in the air starts building towards the iconic two-minute race—the Kentucky Derby, May 3, 2025—marks the 151st running of the historic race with something unexpected since 2019! With the thoroughbreds gearing up and the crowd settling in, the concern isn’t just about who wins but how the day itself unfolds, with regard to the weather.

The air smells of not just excitement but something heavier. Because the atmosphere in Louisville brings a twist, shaping the Run for the Roses in unexpected ways. But what exactly? Well, talk about the skies turning dark and grey—delivering a forecast that might just change the rhythm of the race entirely. The rain chances strike at 100%, and let’s say that the 2025 Kentucky Derby could be one where the horses run under thunderclouds for the first time in 5 years!

It’s 100% rain for the 2025 Kentucky Derby!

According to the National Weather Service in Louisville, there is a 100% chance of a heavy downpour throughout the day, with the heaviest showers expected before 5 p.m. in the evening. So if you were planning to dress to the nines and sip on those mint juleps under the sun, change your plans because this one is going to be a sloppy and dripping wet affair. The 2025 edition isn’t just serving tradition and thrill this year but dishing out a full helping of rain.

But it isn’t happening for the first time. In fact, if you look at the stats, 72 out of 150 Kentucky Derbies have experienced rain, meaning 48% of the races have seen rain at some point during the day, as per the Courier Journal. However, what the forecast predicts for this year is more than just a drizzle warning. There will be steady rain and possibly thunderstorms with a temperature that hovers around a cool 63°F. And the winds? Well, expect a north wind of 3 to 6 mph.

Even if there’s a break in the rain come race time, cloudy conditions are expected to persist. Furthermore, all the rain will make for a muddy, wet racetrack. As reported by Kentucky Derby publicist Kevin Kerstein on X, “Heaver rain shower just moved through the area. Main track is currently sloppy.” Which is to say that the track will narrate a different story because on days like these, it’s not just the fastest horse that wins but the one who knows how to navigate the mud.

Who are the 6 masters of the rain if the skies break open during the Kentucky Derby?

1. Neoequos (No. 2, 30-1)

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and ridden by jockey Luis Saez, Neoequos has a history with wet tracks. Now he was unable to finish his debut race in a rainy Gulfstream Park, but redemption was close. On January 23, the horse redeemed himself by securing a 3 1/2-length victory in similar rainy conditions at the same track. And its third-place finish in the Florida Derby? Well, that further showcases Neoequos’ potential!

2. Final Gambit (No. 3, 30-1)

This colt ran his maiden race on February 15 in rainy conditions on an all-weather track at Turfway Park. Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Luan Machado, Final Gambit showcased his prowess by winning the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, rallying from last to first. While the Derby marks his first dirt race, his adaptability to such conditions bodes well for his chances at a rainy Derby.

3. American Promise (No. 5, 30-1)

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by jockey Nik Juarez and sired by 2018 Triple Crown winner, this horse has shown real promise on wet tracks. American Promise clinched a maiden special weight victory in the mud at Oaklawn on December 29. The horse finished eighth on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs in September, but its pedigree and experience make him an even better contender to watch; for those unaware, he was sired by the 2018 Triple Crown Winner, Justify.

4. Flying Mohawk (No. 11, 30-1)

This is one horse who’s no stranger to some rain and storm. Trained by Whit Beckman and ridden by Joe Ramos, three of Flying Mohawk’s early races occurred in rainy weather where he finished second, first, and fifth on turf tracks. While the Kentucky Derby will be his first dirt race, one can predict that the horse will adjust in these less-than-ideal conditions.

5. Publisher (No. 13, 20-1)

Son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and trained and ridden by Steve Asmussen and Irad Ortiz Jr., respectively, Publisher has consistently performed on muddy tracks while finishing on the board in both a sloppy track race at Churchill Downs in September and a muddy race at Oaklawn in December. Though still a maiden, the horse’s resilience in adverse conditions is noteworthy.

6. Coal Battle (No. 16, 30-1)

Trained by Lonnie Briley and ridden by jockey Juan Vargas, Coal Battle broke his maiden on a sloppy track at Evangeline last July. And right after that began a four-race unbeaten streak that included its 2 1/5-length victory in muddy conditions at Delta Downs in November. Hence, this proven track record in the mud makes the horse a strong contender as the Kentucky Derby turns wet.

With thunderstorms and showers in the forecast and mere hours till the race, these six horses demonstrate the capability to perform under wet and muddy conditions. And bettors? Well, they might just consider these contenders while placing their wagers for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.