Sandy Brondello has seen this movie before. Funny enough….wearing the coach’s hat for the very team her Liberty will now be facing!

Back in 2021, her Phoenix Mercury scraped through the playoffs with nail-biting wins over the Liberty (by one) and the Storm (by five in OT) before shocking Las Vegas en route to the Finals. “We had to do two knockout rounds and beat Vegas and went to the Finals,” she recalled. “So anything is possible, so I’m gonna lean my hat on that.”

Now, from the other side of the bench, she sees echoes of that journey in her 2025 New York Liberty. To advance, they’ll need the same grit and clutch execution that carried Phoenix then, especially against the current Mercury team, powered by MVP candidate Alyssa Thomas and a roster that’s overachieved despite bringing back only two returners.

How we got here: Series context & season recap

The New York Liberty enter the 2025 WNBA playoffs not as the top seed they were last year, but as the No. 5 with a 27-17 record, a clear step back from their dominant 2024 campaign. They still clinched a postseason berth despite a turbulent finish, starting 9-0 before injuries slowed their momentum. A 6-4 stretch in their last 10 games pushed them into a lower seed, stripping away home-court advantage to open the first round.

Meanwhile, the Phoenix Mercury, seeded No. 4 at 27-17, grabbed home-court thanks to a late-season surge, winning six straight and eight of nine before stumbling with three straight losses to close. Their turnaround is remarkable considering only two players returned from last year: Natasha Mack and Kahleah Copper. Phoenix also fought through early injuries to Copper and later Satou Sabally, clawing their way back into relevance after missing the 2024 postseason entirely.

Now, a semifinal spot is on the line.

For New York, it’s about defending their crown and proving their championship core can regroup after a rocky regular season, keeping dynasty hopes alive. For Phoenix, it’s about officially ushering in the post-Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner era, while chasing a first Conference Finals appearance since 2021. And obviously bragging rights of winning against none other than the reigning champs.

Catch the action:

Game 1: Liberty at Mercury (Sunday/2 p.m./ESPN) – PHX Arena
Game 2: Mercury at Liberty (Wednesday/5 p.m./ESPN) – Barclays Center
Game 3 (if necessary): Liberty at Mercury (Friday/TBD/ESPN2) – PHX Arena

Season series recap

The regular-season series finished 3-1 in favor of Phoenix. The games included Phoenix’s dominant 80-63 win on Aug. 30, fueled by a 26-7 turnover margin; New York’s 89-76 victory on July 25; plus Mercury’s back-to-back triumphs in June, 89-81 and 106-91.

Still, as Thomas reminded, the playoffs are different. “They’re really big and clearly they’re reigning champs,” she said. “Last game, they weren’t at full strength. For us, it’s seeing what worked against them and go out there with a great game.” Sure, Phoenix had New York’s number in the regular season, but this time the Liberty arrive with a healthier roster and playoff-tested depth.

Playoff history

The playoff matchups have been limited but memorable. In 1997, the Liberty beat Phoenix 59-41 in the Eastern Conference Semifinals (a single-game format at the time) before falling to Houston in the Finals. They next met in the 2016 second round, where the Mercury prevailed, and again in the 2021 first round when Phoenix edged New York 83-82 in a thriller. Worth noting here, both wins came under Sandy Brondello, who coached the Mercury before departing that same year to take the Liberty job.

This series marks their first playoff clash since Brondello swapped the Valley for the skyscrapers.

How they match up: Strengths & weaknesses

It’s true that both teams sit among the WNBA’s elite when it comes to advanced metrics. Here’s how they compare:

New York ranks fifth in offensive rating, putting up about 105.8 points per 100 possessions, but slipped to the middle of the pack defensively after injuries disrupted their rotations. Their style leans on a moderate pace and half-court execution, with ball movement as a signature; 73.7% of their baskets come off assists, one of the league’s best marks.

Phoenix, meanwhile, hangs its hat on defense. They own a top-three defensive rating and allow the fewest points per game. Overall, they’ve outscored opponents 3,567–3,428 (+139), a balance powered by 33.8% shooting from deep and 47.6% efficiency inside, fueled by AT’s paint dominance. They like to push tempo slightly more than New York, but when it comes to offensive flow, the Liberty still holds the edge, ranking second in assists (21.8) and fourth in field goal percentage (45.3%).

On the glass, Phoenix has the slight edge at 34.7 rebounds per game compared to New York’s 33.7. From beyond the arc, though, it swings back to the Liberty, who thrive on spacing the floor, 35.5% from three on 9.5 makes per game. Phoenix launches more (27.7 attempts) but at a less efficient 34.0% clip.

What could change the game?

Statistical:

• Tempo control- Phoenix thrives when the pace is quick, using their pressure to rattle New York’s injury-tested ball-handlers into turnovers. But if the Liberty slows things down, their half-court execution becomes a major weapon.
• Foul trouble – New York’s frontcourt of Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones live at the rim, drawing contact regularly. Phoenix’s aggressive help defense can swing momentum either way—stalling drives or sending the Liberty to the stripe, where they lead the league in free-throw percentage (83.7%).
• Three-point  – The Liberty bank on efficiency (35.5%), while Phoenix leans on volume (27.7 attempts per game). A hot or cold night from deep could completely flip the series script.
• Signature styles & home court advantage- Phoenix’s havoc defense ranks top-three in steals (7.8 per game) and forces 15+ turnovers on average, sparking fast-break chances. New York answers with motion-heavy offense and crisp ball movement. And in a 1-1-1 first-round format, home court matters. Phoenix’s 15-7 record at PHX Arena could prove decisive.

Storylines:

• Finals MVP potential – Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally, Jonquel Jones, and Alyssa Thomas have all been postseason standouts. Any of them could take over a game, whether through scoring, floor spacing, or controlling tempo. Their ability to attack aggressively could swing the series if they catch fire.
• Brondello vs. her former team –  Sandy Brondello’s Mercury tenure included one championship, two Finals appearances, eight consecutive playoff runs, six semifinal berths, and nine single-elimination wins. Even in the year she left, she earned Coach of the Year honors. Facing the Mercury gives her a chance to assert another upper hand over her former squad.
• Record-chasing potential –  Back in 2024, New York and Phoenix combined for 33 made three-pointers in a game, setting a WNBA record. With the talent on both sides, another historic night is entirely possible.

Stars and key contributors

Both teams are star-studded. Phoenix brings together Sabally, AT, and Kahleah Copper as their big three, while New York counters with Stewart, Ionescu, and Jones, last year’s championship core.

Injuries:

Both teams are coming in healthy, though Phoenix might take a hit with DeWanna Bonner sidelined.

Superstars must shine brightest

Breanna Stewart hasn’t always led the Liberty this season due to injuries, but the two-time Finals MVP has a track record of catching fire in the postseason, averaging 19.4 points last year and going as high as 27 points per game in past playoffs. At the same time, Ionescu is likely to have at least one hot-shooting night from deep; if Phoenix tries to trap her on high screens, her court vision and chemistry with Stewart and Jones could generate easy buckets.

Jonquel Jones is another key factor. One state proves it all. The Liberty are 33-0 historically when Jones records a double-double. In 2024, she earned Finals MVP honors with 15.5 points and 8.2 rebounds, and this season, when she, Stewart, and Ionescu all finish games together, the Liberty are 10-0. With Emma Meesseman joining, the 2019 Finals MVP, averaging 13.4 points, 5.1 rebounds a night, New York’s core is filled with experience on the biggest stages.

Inside, the Jones-Sabally matchup will be something to keep an eye on. Phoenix’s frontcourt is versatile and sizable, but Jones’ length, playmaking, shooting touch, and rim presence make her a nightmare even for elite defenders like Sabally.

However, Thomas is perhaps New York’s biggest threat. She averages 15.2 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 6.7 assists in her career postseason. On top of that, she is already having a great season, breaking multiple records, including the single-season assist mark. Kahleah Copper, 2021 Finals MVP, has never averaged fewer than 14.5 points in the playoffs (except her first season). Currently, she’s averaging 16.4 points and 5.0 rebounds, showing why the Mercury’s healthy big three have propelled them here.

Bench heroes

Bench and rookies could tip the scales, too. For the Mercury, these could make the difference:

• Sami Whitcomb (9.3 points, 2.7 rebounds)
• Lexi Held (5.3 points)
• Monique Akoa Makani (7.7 points, 2.2 rebounds)

For the Liberty:

• Leonie Fiebich (8.8 points, 3.6 rebounds)
• Marine Johannes (6.5 points, 2.0 rebounds)
• Kennedy Burke (8.2 points, 2.4 rebounds)
• Nyara Sabally [is back after weeks of sitting out with injury] (5.5 points, 4.6 rebounds)

Note: The Mercury’s depth is their strength and weakness both. Sure, they put up most points off the bench (25.5) but those contributions comes from 3 players most of the times. Their rookies have impressed, but not to forget they are untraditional rookies. New York’s supporting cast is tested and could emerge as difference-makers. Johannes’ three-point shooting and Fiebich’s bursts (like the Seattle game) can swing momentum.

Prediction

All things considered, with both teams busy studying each other’s highlights, who is going to come out on top? Sure, Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts is confident, “We’re seeing the defending champs, and they’re the champs until somebody else beats them.” But even though analysts and fans are split, most lean toward a Liberty win in three games, citing New York’s championship experience and now-healthy core, despite starting on the road.

We agree: the Liberty are in prime position to pull off the upset. Their postseason know-how and full roster should pay dividends, making this a series worth watching.

That said, the Liberty likely won’t make it back to the WNBA Finals, we believe. The Minnesota Lynx and Las Vegas Aces are expected to battle for the championship. Still, for the opening round, this matchup promises a competitive showdown.