The scariest thing about facing the Minnesota Lynx is the unpredictability. They might let you pile up points early, maybe even for an entire half, but once they lock in, everything changes. That’s exactly what unfolded in Game 1 of Round 2. The Phoenix Mercury feasted inside early, scoring 42 of their 47 first-half points in the paint. But after the break, the Lynx completely flipped the script, clamping down and holding Phoenix to just 22 points across the final two quarters.

Take Round 1, for example. Lynx had a unique set of players driving the team in the first game versus GSV, entirely different in Game 2, and the pattern is just impossible to match. For them, the player at her fullest stretch gets on the floor and dominates. That means the Mercury have to be extra prepared as they head to Game 2 of the crucial semifinal.

Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury: Where to Watch

Date: Tuesday, September 23rd
Tip-Off: 6:30 PM CT
Where: Target Center

Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury: Injury Report

While the Mercury are coming in at full roster strength, Minnesota lacks an important player. It’s DiJonai Carrington, who is out for the rest of the postseason as her tests revealed she suffered a “significant mid-foot sprain.” She was originally ruled out of Game 1 against the Mercury after an MRI confirmed the sprain. Then she was spotted wearing a boot and walking with crutches.

Without her, Minnesota’s bench loses an important player, as Carrington has been an offensive burst in the first-round series. She added six points in Game 1 and 11 in Game 2 versus the Valks. Not just that, she also averaged 8.6 points in her 11 regular-season games with the Lynx. So yes, her absence will be painful, especially when the Mercury are 100% healthy. Still, the Lynx know how to dominate without her.

Starting Five

Here are the starting five for the Minnesota Lynx.

Here are the starting five for the Phoenix Mercury.

So, who’ll win the Minnesota Lynx or Phoenix Mercury ?

While the Minnesota Lynx have been the top team across the league throughout the season, don’t consider the Mercury less. They’ve made it to the semifinals after defeating defending champions, the NY Liberty. Even in Game 1, it looked like the Mercury would grab a win until the Lynx turned the tables.

Statistically, Minnesota scores six more points per game with 86.1 points compared to what the Mercury gives up at 80.1. Meanwhile, the Mercury allows 6.1 points more than what Minnesota allows its opponents to score at 76.7.

Even when comparing both teams in the last ten games, Minnesota’s been slightly better on the defensive end, giving up 75.4 points per game. They’ve also made 9.7 three-pointers in their last ten outings. The Mercury, on the other hand, is scoring 75.8 points per game, which is less than their season average of 82.8. They’re also draining 8.9 threes per game over the last ten games. So clearly, Minnesota’s got an edge over others.

And that’s why even ESPN has given them a 79.7% chance to win. But if we’ve learned anything this season, it’s that anything could happen at any moment.