“Every time I come here, I always hope I’m going to stay until the last stage,” Aryna Sabalenka confessed, eyes fixed on the finish line. She’s now just one win away from her 4th Madrid final. The World No.1 survived a tense battle against Marta Kostyuk, winning 7-6(4), 7-6(7), and booking her spot in the Madrid semifinals. Both of her clay titles have come in Madrid, and she’s now eyeing a third. Standing in her way is Elina Svitolina, a seasoned fighter with the tools to challenge her. Power meets precision in this clash of styles. Can Sabalenka keep her Madrid magic alive, or will Svitolina steal the spotlight? Let’s break it down!

Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina: Preview

Aryna Sabalenka’s love affair with Madrid continues. The World No.1 boasts a dazzling 21-4 record at the tournament and has barely missed a beat this season, racking up 29 wins from 34 matches, with titles in Brisbane and Miami. This marks her sixth semifinal of 2024, having made deep runs at Brisbane, the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart, and now Madrid. In the Spanish capital she breezed past Elise Mertens and Peyton Stearns before surviving a stern test from Marta Kostyuk in the quarters.

On the other side, Elina Svitolina is in vintage form. Since turning 30 last fall, she’s been producing her best tennis since 2017, when she strung together 15 consecutive wins. She’s gone 22-6 this season, reaching the quarterfinals at both the Australian Open and Indian Wells, and claimed the title at the Open Calfinances Rouen Métropole. She leads the tour in clay-court victories this year, and her current 11-match winning streak on the surface—all in straight sets—is a career first. In Madrid, Svitolina defeated top-tier opponents Elena Rybakina and Maria Sakkari before demolishing Moyuka Uchijima 6-2, 6-1, breaking the Japanese player five times and winning 30 of 45 points on her own serve.

Sabalenka vs Svitolina: Head-to-Head

Sabalenka leads the head-to-head against Svitolina 4-1.

• 2018 Wuhan Round of 32- Sabalenka won 6-4,2-6,6-1
• 2020 Strasbourgh Semifinal- Svitolina won 6-2,4-6,6-4
• 2023 Roland Garros Quarterfinals- Sabalenka won 6-4,6-4
• 2024 Rome Round of 16- Sabalenka won 4-6,6-1, 7-6
• 2024 Cincinnati Round of 16- Sabalenka won 7-5,6-2

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in three sets

Madrid is Aryna Sabalenka’s happy hunting ground as the Belarusian has made three finals in her last four appearances, lifting the trophy twice. Her only loss in that stretch? A hard-fought final against Iga Swiatek last year. Her big serve and commanding forehand allow her to dictate the tempo, especially on Madrid’s altitude-assisted, faster clay. If she can maintain her aggression without crossing into the danger zone of overhitting, it’s tough to see anyone taming her.

But standing in her way is a player who’s quietly staging one of the most compelling comeback stories of the season. And when it comes to facing World No.1s, Svitolina has made it a bit of a specialty. She’s 7-7 against players ranked No.1 at the time of their match—an elite stat that puts her just behind Serena and Venus Williams, and Lindsay Davenport among active and recent players. Still, the Ukrainian knows she has a mountain to climb. Svitolina trails Sabalenka 1-4 in their head-to-head. Two of the three matches they’ve played on clay have gone the distance, which suggests that the Ukrainian has the grit and game to trouble the Belarusian on this surface. She’s been here before and knows how to adjust, absorb power, and strike at the right time.

And yet, Madrid remains Sabalenka’s turf. She’s not just the Tour’s topmost player this year—she’s also one of the most battle-tested. The 26-year-old has faced 44 break points so far in the tournament and saved 35 of them. That kind of resilience isn’t an accident.

This will be a close match with Aryna Sabalenka winning in three sets.