Carlos Alcaraz is heading into the Asian swing on a high after a strong American run. He conquered Cincinnati, swept up a second US Open title, and climbed to No. 1 in the ATP rankings. No rest followed his New York triumph, as he went straight into the Laver Cup with Team Europe. Now, the Spaniard turns the page. It’s time for a debut in Japan. Yet, there is a potential roadblock in his way.

Kicking off on Wednesday, September 24, Alcaraz enters the Tokyo Open as the top seed. Fresh from Team Europe’s loss to Team World at the Laver Cup, he’s looking to bounce back with some solo firepower. At the other end of the draw stands his recent conqueror, Taylor Fritz, who arrives as the second seed, while Jannik Sinner shifts focus to the China Open. Still, Alcaraz won’t look too far ahead. He has plenty to handle first.

In his opener, Carlos Alcaraz draws Sebastian Baez. The Argentine is no stranger, with Carlos beating him twice in 2021 and 2022. That history hints at a manageable start for the Spaniard. Should he advance, round two brings Alejandro Tabilo or Belgium’s Zizou Bergs. Both are dangerous on their day but lack the sustained firepower to dent Alcaraz when he’s dialed in. Tabilo leans on his lefty serve and variety. Bergs adds energy and athleticism. Yet neither has the top-10 experience or weapons to live with Alcaraz’s pace, flair, and nerves in ATP 500 conditions.

The challenge spikes from the quarterfinals. Three names hover: Frances Tiafoe, Brandon Nakashima, or Jordan Thompson. Tiafoe and Alcaraz have shared fireworks, though the Spaniard leads 2–1. Nakashima is clean off the ground and once faced Carlos in the 2021 Next Gen Finals group stage. Thompson is riding momentum this season, but hasn’t met Alcaraz since 2023.

Survive that stage, and the semifinals could feature Casper Ruud, Jaume Munar, Matteo Berrettini, or Denis Shapovalov. Against Ruud, Alcaraz owns a 4–1 record, but Ruud’s 6–1, 7–5 victory at the 2024 ATP Finals in Turin will give him confidence. He also leads compatriot Munar 2–1, including a three-set epic win this June. Berrettini still threatens with his serve and forehand, though Alcaraz leads 3–1. Shapovalov? Carlos Alcaraz owns him 2–0, the most recent a 6–2, 6–4 result at Indian Wells earlier this year. With those numbers, the path looks steady for another final unless someone springs an upset.

And then comes the possible showdown – a final against Holger Rune, Tomas Machac, Ugo Humbert, or Taylor Fritz. The American is the No. 2 seed here and looms as the reunion fans want. It would also be a chance to rewrite the story. Fritz stunned him at the Laver Cup, blasting through 6-3, 6-2. That win snapped Alcaraz’s 13-match streak and gave Fritz his first victory over him. It was also payback after Carlos ousted him in the Wimbledon semifinals earlier this year. So why did the world No. 1 stumble then?

Following Fritz’s upset, Carlos Alcaraz opens up about the pressure

On September 20, the world’s No. 1 was stunned under the lights at the Laver Cup. Alcaraz, fresh off reclaiming the top ATP ranking for the first time since 2023, fell in straight sets to Taylor Fritz. His 13-match winning streak, which had carried him through a golden summer capped by a second US Open crown, suddenly stopped. The Spaniard sprayed 19 unforced errors to Fritz’s 10 and admitted the night belonged to the American.

“It wasn’t the match that I was expecting, but I think I have to look a little bit to him that I think he played great tennis,” said Carlos Alcaraz on the ATP tour website. “I just wasn’t as solid as I wanted in the match, and I think these conditions, it’s pretty slow. The balls are really big, so I had to be solid. I didn’t play that match today. Taylor played a great match, really solid, playing aggressive when he could. I think everything went to his side, so I had to congratulate him and that he played a much better game than I did.”

For Team Europe, the timing could not have been worse. Trailing 3-5 heading into their leader’s clash, Alcaraz’s 6-3, 6-2 defeat only deepened the hole. When pressed on whether the pressure of being World No. 1 weighed on him, the 22-year-old brushed it aside. “Not really. Today I feel like I had to win the point, because the way that the day is going, with the two losses, I feel like I had to win my match,” he explained. “It was a little bit of extra pressure, because of the way that the day was going on, but it wasn’t because I’m the No. 1 in the world.”

He went further, pointing out a perspective beyond numbers. “I think the ranking is just a number. It shouldn’t give you the pressure that you have to win everything and every match. I’m there, but you have to still do the things that you were doing before. But with the two losses, I felt a little bit of extra pressure.”

As the Laver Cup disappointment fades, Carlos Alcaraz shifts back to the grind of the main tour. His Japan Open debut is next. The burning question: will he bring that competitive fire back and set up a revenge run against Fritz? Tell us what you think in the comments!