After months of suspense, Subriel Matias finally gets a chance at redemption. The two-time light welterweight champion has faced criticism ever since his name surfaced in a doping controversy. His failure to clear drug tests following his July title win over Alberto Puello jeopardized a long-anticipated title defense at Barclays Center. However, the New York State Athletic Commission’s clearance – after determining the detected PED level was below the threshold – has breathed new life into his comeback.

On Saturday, Subriel Matias steps in against No. 1 contender Dalton Smith. A win could go a long way toward silencing the critics who have lingered since the doping saga. But the 33-year-old Puerto Rican faces no easy task. Across the ring stands an equally motivated opponent, one who, after years on the periphery, is eager to announce himself on the world stage. So who holds the edge heading into fight night?

Predicting Subriel Matias vs. Dalton Smith: Who has better stats and a record?

The main event on the Fresh Productions pay-per-view card pits a battle-tested veteran against a rising contender. Smith, 28 (he turns 29 on February 8), turned pro in 2015, when Matias was already 13 fights into his career. After suffering his first professional loss a year later, Matias reached the sport’s summit in 2023 by stopping Jeremias Ponce to win the vacant IBF 140-pound title.

Liam Paro stripped him of the belt in 2024. Still, Matias rebounded months later and reclaimed championship gold in July, marking his second title reign. What continues to stand out is his staggering knockout rate. At 96 percent, Matias remains one of boxing’s most dangerous finishers.

Smith, by comparison, carries a solid 72 percent knockout ratio. Unbeaten in 18 professional outings, the Sheffield native previously held the British light welterweight title before adding Commonwealth and European belts to his resume.

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Subriel Matias vs. Dalton Smith: Height, weight, reach comparison, and more

Matias’ statistical edge narrows when it comes to physical dimensions. Smith stands at 5 feet 9 inches, roughly an inch taller than Matias, who measures 5 feet 8 inches. While Smith’s reach has not been officially listed, Matias owns a 71.5-inch reach.

When Matias faced Puello six months ago, he made the 140-pound limit. Smith last weighed in at 139.5 pounds for his April bout against Mathieu Germain.

Fight prediction

While Matias enters on a winning note, the doping controversy appears to have tempered confidence in his odds. Most sportsbooks list him as a narrow favorite, giving him roughly a 55–65 percent chance of victory. Much of the belief in a Smith upset stems from the challenger’s youth and recent form.

Matias’ tight win over Puello only fueled questions about his durability. With a physical edge, Smith, a composed, intelligent boxer-puncher, will likely look to apply pressure early and test Matias’ resolve, possibly opening the door for a stoppage.

Still, it would be premature to write off Matias. There’s a reason the rugged Puerto Rican has reclaimed a world title twice. As he has shown before, he may spend the early rounds weathering the storm before unleashing sustained body and head attacks in his trademark swarmer style.

Fans should buckle in. This title fight promises fireworks and a result that could swing either way.