Can anyone beat Max Verstappen? That’s been the question of the 2023 season. After the reigning champion won 10 races in a row, that record-breaking streak finally ended at the Singapore GP. Carlos Sainz became the first driver this year to beat Red Bull. But if that race proved anything, Verstappen could only be defeated by his RB19. Practically nothing else. As the Dutchman raked in win after win, it wasn’t a matter of ‘if Verstappen would win the 2023 title.’ It became a question of ‘when will Verstappen win the championship?’ His first opportunity will come at the Qatar Grand Prix.

After a disappointing outing in Singapore, the Japanese GP was a statement. A statement of intent by Max Verstappen. As he clinched his 13th win of the season, Verstappen hand-delivered Red Bull its sixth Constructors’ Championship. With a 177-point lead in the championship, the Dutchman has set himself up beautifully for a third consecutive title he can win in Qatar. The question is: Can anyone delay the inevitable?

Can Lando Norris & Co. be a threat to Max Verstappen in the Qatar GP Sprint?

As Red Bull returned to form in Japan, McLaren continued its form from Singapore. Coming into the race, Mercedes’ George Russell said his favorite for the Japanese GP was Lando Norris. While Verstappen had other plans, Norris was the second-best in Suzuka. With his teammate Oscar Piastri finishing in third, McLaren was the closest “challenger” Red Bull had—albeit Verstappen won by a 20-second margin. So how is McLaren expected to spoil the Dutchman’s part in Qatar?

Let’s compare the circuits in Suzuka and Lusail. Both have predominantly high-speed corners and a reasonably long straight. Considering Suzuka’s layout suited the MCL60, it’s highly likely that so will Lusail. Also, since McLaren introduced its upgrade overhaul, its drivers have been on top of their games, making the most of their opportunities. So, if McLaren does go well in Qatar, we can rest assured that Norris and Piastri will deliver. Coming to race pace, the MCL60 will have practically no chance against the RB19. But we also can’t forget that Qatar is a Sprint weekend. 

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With six race weekends to go—including three Sprint weekends—there are 180 points up for grabs. Verstappen has a 177-point lead, which means he only needs three points to seal the title. In a Sprint race, the top eight finishers score points. Technically, if Verstappen finished sixth or above in the Sprint, he could win the championship on a Saturday. Given it’s a Sprint, and considering how well Piastri did in Belgium, McLaren could very well have a chance to beat Verstappen. The thing is, they could take a 1-2 finish, but that’ll still leave four places where Max could potentially finish and win the championship.

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While McLaren could challenge him, a top-six finish for the reigning champion is highly probable. But there’s still one way that Verstappen won’t go into Sunday as a three-time champion.

Sergio Perez needs to bring his A-game

Practically, there’s close to no chance anyone can stop Verstappen from winning the championship. But mathematically, Sergio Perez still has a chance. Even if Perez has a perfect weekend—winning the Sprint and the race—Verstappen, in all likelihood, will be a three-time champion. But that doesn’t stop us from thinking about the what-ifs. If Verstappen leaves Qatar with a 146-point gap, he’ll be the champion. So, let’s break down how Perez can stop the Dutchman’s charge. On Saturday, the Mexican will need a second-place finish regardless of where his teammate finishes. If Perez wins and Verstappen fails to finish, the scales would still favor Verstappen on Sunday.

If Verstappen follows his Saturday DNF with anything better than a P9 on Sunday, he’ll be champion. The same won’t work for Perez, though. If he wins on Saturday, he’ll have to follow up with a 3rd win in 2023 to delay Verstappen’s 3rd title. That’s the mathematical part. For the practical part, given Perez’s recent poor form (which has lasted five months), outscoring Verstappen is a dream he can only imagine achieving in 2024. Even in Japan, where Red Bull should’ve gotten a 1-2 finish, Perez qualified 0.773s off Verstappen. His race performance wasn’t any better, ending in a DNF. But could racing under the lights of the Lusail International Circuit reignite Perez’s spark from the start of 2023? Only time will tell.

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Considering all this, Max Verstappen can technically still be a two-time champion, as F1 leaves Qatar behind. But do you think it’ll actually happen?