The Florida Swing starts on February 26 at the Champion Course at PGA National. It has 7,223 yards of par-71 trouble, water on 15 holes, and the famous Bear Trap on holes 15–17. The field got smaller quickly when Ben Griffin, Jacob Bridgeman, Adam Scott, and others dropped out. But the competition is still strong, and here are the rankings of who can take the $9.6M Cognizant Classic 2026 trophy home.

5. Brooks Koepka

This is only Koepka‘s third start since returning to the PGA Tour in January from LIV Golf. His first two weren’t great, though: T56 at Torrey Pines and a missed cut at the WM Phoenix Open. Neither result is alarming, given the venues. At TPC Scottsdale, he lost 2.5 strokes on the greens over two rounds while gaining tee-to-green in both starts.

However, at PGA National, the equation changes. Koepka grew up in Palm Beach County, played high school golf near this course, and posted a T2 here in 2019 across eight career starts at the venue. A win also unlocks access to signature events via Aon qualification criteria. At +3000, the price is built around a slow start on courses that never fit him.

4. Nicolai Højgaard

Seven rounds into his 2026 PGA Tour season, Højgaard ranks 3rd on Tour in SG: Total at +2.218 and 1st on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee at +0.874. He’s also 7th in SG: Tee-to-Green at +1.641 across those seven measured rounds. His T3 at the WM Phoenix Open came with a final-round 67 at -15, finishing alongside Scottie Scheffler. 

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At +2000, the case at PGA National is straightforward. He ranks 17th on Tour in SG: Approach at +0.731, and at a course where 32 of the top 34 finishers last year gained strokes on approach, that matters. His OWGR sits at 55th, just outside the Masters cutoff. No PGA Tour win yet, but he arrives as one of the three best statistical players in this field at the Cognizant Classic 2026.

3. Michael Thorbjornsen

Just two weeks ago at TPC Scottsdale, Thorbjornsen held the solo lead standing on the 16th tee. He finished T3 at -15, his best career result and second top-five of 2026. Turned pro in June 2024, OWGR of 50, sitting 16th in FedExCup points. He hit 16 greens in regulation in R1 at Phoenix and ranks among the longest and most accurate drivers in this field, exactly the profile PGA National rewards.

Three top-10s in his last eight worldwide starts make this a player trending in the right direction. Thorbjornsen has been practicing at TGL’s Boston Common club in Palm Beach Gardens this winter, literally a short drive from PGA National. TPC Scottsdale has historically shown strong course correlation to PGA National, which only strengthens the case. He hasn’t won on the PGA Tour yet, but +2500 on a player who nearly won two weeks ago and is familiar with the turf is reasonable value.

Then comes the man with history and experience.

2. Shane Lowry

Nobody in this field has played PGA National better than Lowry. Seven appearances at this event, and he made all seven cuts. Four consecutive finishes of T11 or better, including three top fives. In 2022, he stood 18th in contention before a weather delay changed the outcome, finishing runner-up. His 2026 season includes a T8 at Pebble Beach and a T24 at Riviera, with a lead in this field in iron play over the past 40 rounds. The +1200 reflects the most consistent course record in this field.

And Lowry lives here and is aware of the course. Although he’s never won here despite being in the mix repeatedly. Can this be his year?

1. Ryan Gerard

No. 7 in the FedExCup and No. 26 in the OWGR, Gerard opened the season with back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Sony Open and The American Express. He followed with a T11 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Ranked 16th on Tour in SG: Total at +1.349 and 8th in SG: Approach at +0.894 across 17 measured rounds, he finished fourth at this exact venue in 2023 and ranks 19th in SG: Tee-to-Green at +1.008, the range that decides outcomes at PGA National.

The only concern is putting. He’s 53rd on Tour in SG: putting at +0.341, which is positive but inconsistent week-to-week. Riviera’s Poa annua greens were a rough week. Bermudagrass at PGA National suits him better. Gerard lives in Jupiter, Florida, won his first Tour title at the Barracuda Championship in 2025, and enters a thinned field as the strongest statistical case on the board at +1600.

Five contenders, one Bear Trap—which one will win the Cognizant Classic 2026? Or will there be a surprising element? Well, March 1st will tell!