Will Oakmont Country Club be kind to the elite roster gearing up for the 2025 U.S. Open, given the challenges (and changes)? The greens are large, sloped, and very fast. The rough is thick and lush, while the 175 bunkers present tough challenges. When the course opened in 1904, it was 6,406 yards long and had a par of 80. This week, it has been extended to 7,372 yards with a par of 70. Despite these changes and LIV golfers’ major performances, two popular golf analysts believe Oakmont would be tolerable for a few LIV golfers, including Bryson DeChambeau, Joaquin Niemann, and Tyrell Hatton. How? Hear them out…

At the 2025 Masters, DeChambeau finished T-5, Niemann finished T-29, and Hatton finished T-36. The best LIV performance came from Patrick Reed, who finished 3rd at Augusta. At the 2025 PGA Championship, Bryson DeChambeau finished T2, Joaquin Niemann at T8, and Hatton at T60. Regardless of these results, Smylie and Charlie sat down on the recent episode of The Smylie Show and showed support.

Smylie Kaufman points at a few stats: Angel Cabrera’s winning driving distance at the 2007 U.S. Open, greens in regulation (65.28%), and putting (1.73). Dustin Johnson‘s stats were pretty strong at the 2016 U.S. Open, including his greens in regulation (1st; 76.4%) and putting (49th; 1.72). Kaufman adds, “So, the formula to me with those two guys, which is hit it really long off the tee, find a way to putt for birdie, and just two-putt, and then take your birdies when you can get them. And if we think about, oh, let’s see what player kind of fits that category right now. Um, Bryson.” 

Take DeChambeau’s 2024 U.S. Open run. The Pinehurst course suited Bryson DeChambeau incredibly well. He averaged a driving distance of 337.90 yards, with greens in regulation at 65%, and finished 10th overall in putting with an average of 1.72. But, of course, there are Oakmont challenges. The average fairway width at Oakmont is 28 yards, with some even narrower. Players who miss the fairways will contend with five-inch thick rough or one of the bunkers. The course will feature hard, fast, and undulating putting surfaces, measuring just under 15 on the Stimpmeter. Accurate driving and precise approach shots can lead to amazing scores.

Given that, Kaufman has incredible faith in two other LIV players. He continues, “I think Bryson is, uh, definitely going to be in contention, has a really good chance of winning. Um, he’s definitely my favorite from the LIV crowd, uh, of guys, and I like a lot of guys from LIV this week, to be honest. I think that are going to play well. Um, I think Joaquin Niemann is going to have a good week. I believe that, uh, Tyrrell Hatton is going to have a good week. So, we might be pretty LIV-heavy on our lineup this week.” 

In Smylie Kaufman’s defense, Joaquin Niemann is looking incredibly strong this season. In his 8 LIV Golf appearances, Niemann has won four times. His latest win came at the LIV Golf Virginia. Of course, his 2025 stats work in his favor as well. In LIV, Joaquin Niemann has a driving distance of 327.3 yards, ranked 3rd overall. He is 2nd in regulation for greens at 74.77% and has a putting average of 1.60, placing him T14.

On the other hand, Tyrrell Hatton played in 8 LIV events and achieved two top-10 finishes. However, stats seem to work in Hatton’s favor. This season in LIV Golf, he ranks 29th in driving accuracy at 57.74%, finished 4th in greens in regulation at 73.38%, and has a putting average of 1.60, placing him T14. Given Oakmont’s current state and requirements, the ball may be in these golfers’ favor.

These three shots may help golfers at the wet Oakmont Country Club

The Pittsburgh area has recorded a relatively wet spring. The greens are expected to be fast but may hold approach shots better than in 2007. However, the rough will be deep, thick, and challenging, with no gradual transition to shorter grass near the fairways—just short grass followed by long grass, maintaining Oakmont’s tough style. The bunkers are not designed for easy escapes; the sand is difficult, and strategic ditches are present throughout the course. Notably, the ‘Church Pews’ bunker, located between the third and fourth fairways, measures over 100 yards long and 43 yards wide, featuring turf islands that penalize errant tee shots. However, three shots may help prove The Smylie Kaufman conversation correct.

At Oakmont, driving accuracy is crucial due to the thick rough and narrow fairways, with 70 percent of strokes gained off the tee in recent U.S. Opens attributed to precision rather than distance. Additionally, players’ performance on approach shots from over 125 yards has a strong correlation with overall success, as seen in the top finishers, where about 70 percent of their strokes gained came from these shots. Putting will also be a significant factor, as Oakmont’s greens are expected to be among the fastest players will face, running at least 14 on the Stimpmeter. The severe slopes make speed control challenging, so players must excel in distance control and maintain a high make percentage on putts within six feet. Do you think the same?