Patrick Reed has thrown a monkey wrench into Rory McIlroy’s plans. After announcing his decision to leave LIV Golf, the 2018 Masters champion revealed his plans to make a comeback on the PGA Tour by winning a card through the Race to Dubai Rankings. For someone like McIlroy, that means tough competition for the season-long Race to Dubai title, and Reed’s early performance shows the Ulsterman has a new challenger.

“It’s February 5. Patrick Reed has almost secured full playing rights on the PGA Tour for next season. And he’s giving Rory McIlroy a Race to Dubai headache. 🧵,” John Turnbull of bunkered.co.uk wrote in an X post.

In the three starts he had on the DP World Tour this year, he picked up a solo 26 at the Dubai Invitational, a win at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic, and a T2 finish at the Bapco Bahrain Championship. Collectively, the three events earned him 1,674.70 points. At the start of the Qatar Masters, he stood second on the list, only behind Jayden Schaper, who has earned 1,742.68 points.

Moreover, in his 4th start on the tour at the 2026 Qatar Masters, Patrick Reed is firing on all cylinders. As of the moment, the former Masters champ is at T2 with five holes left to play.

If Reed continues to bag multiple top tens, he will pose an insurmountable lead over Rory McIlroy, who plies his trade mostly on the PGA Tour. Last year, the Northern Irishman played only seven DPWT events (excluding Majors and the Ryder Cup) and still walked away with his seventh Race to Dubai title.

While McIlroy’s performances at the Majors aided his quest, he also won the Amgen Irish Open and finished solo second at the Genesis Scottish Open. However, he didn’t face any steep competition from any players, as Tommy Fleetwood, Shane Lowry, Matt Fitzpatrick also compete on the PGA Tour, and Jon Rahm plays in LIV Golf.

But now that Reed is here and playing a full schedule on the DPWT, it might not come easily for the reigning Masters champion. Patrick Reed is currently facing a one-year ban on the PGA Tour for his stint with LIV Golf, and has already revealed his plan to get full exemption status by earning one of the 10 PGA Tour cards available through the Race to Dubai Rankings.

“Continue to play out here and be in the Top 10 and be on the PGA TOUR next year,” Reed said after his 2026 Hero Dubai Desert Classic win.

This comes at a time when Rory McIlroy is only one Race to Dubai title behind the record holder, Colin Montgomerie (8). Notably, the last golfer to win the PGA Tour card was Jordan Smith, who had only 2,203.32 points. In 2024, it was Tom McKibbin, who was the last to win the card with 1,897.45 points.

Thus, the 2018 Masters champion is already close to them. And if he wins the Qatar Masters, he will get 585 R2DR points, catapulting him well over 2,200 points.

McIlroy currently stands 26th in the Race to Dubai with 242.80 points. While he can (and will) improve his ranking by the tail-end of the season, his potential schedule might hinder his progress.

Rory McIlroy plans to reduce his 2026 schedule

The Northern Irishman has outlined plans to scale back his 2026 tournament schedule to around 22-23 events. He said he wants to prioritize health, family, and golf longevity at age 36. This shift follows a demanding 2025 and aims to avoid the “hamster wheel” of constant play.

Rory McIlroy wants to stay injury-free for another decade of competitive golf. Thus, he plans on skipping non-essential events. In fact, he even missed some PGA Tour signature events in 2025. He didn’t participate in the 2025 RBC Heritage and the 2025 Memorial, even though it led to criticism from fans and some analysts.

If he chooses to skip DP World Tour events as well, that could worsen the Patrick Reed challenge. Fewer starts leave far less room for error in a season-long points race.

With Patrick Reed likely to load up on DP World Tour appearances, what began as a quiet push for a PGA Tour card now threatens to turn into a season-defining problem for McIlroy’s bid for an eighth Race to Dubai title.