The countdown is on for the ESPYs of British sports. On Thursday, December 18, 2025, the BBC Sports Personality of the Year ceremony returns live from MediaCityUK in Salford. Like every other year, the ceremony will bring together the country’s top athletes to celebrate their achievements. And among many others will be Rory McIlroy. The Northern Irishman got shortlisted for the award and is also the crowd favorite to win the silver trophy.

BBC Sport recently announced the final shortlist comprising 6 top athletes from the UK in 2025. Besides McIlroy, Lando Norris (another fan favorite to win), Chloe Kelly, Hannah Hampton, Ellie Kildunne, and Luke Littler made it to the shortlist.

Lando Norris’ winning odds rose after his dramatic victory at Abu Dhabi last week. The newly crowned champion has betting odds of 7/2. But he is still behind Rory McIlroy, who has betting odds of 13/20. The betting odds for others are Chloe Kelly (6/1), Hannah Hampton (125/1), Ellie Kildunne (50/1), and Luke Littler (28/1).

The Masters champion leads the betting odds because of the amazing year he has had. The 29-time PGA Tour winner completed his career Grand Slam after defeating Justin Rose to win the Masters 2025. This completed his long wait for the iconic green jacket, which he nearly missed on multiple occasions since 2014.

After entering the elite group of Grand Slam winners, including Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, and others, McIlroy helped the European team clinch an away Ryder Cup victory at Bethpage Black. His three and a half points at the biennial event were crucial in gaining the lead over the American team, which helped them survive the potential Sunday comeback by Scottie Scheffler and company.

The Northern Irishman also got his 7th Race to Dubai title to surpass the legendary Seve Ballesteros. With only one more win, he will tie the record held by Colin Montgomerie.

“I have more chance of winning if I’m actually there and I recognise that with the audience the show attracts, it could only be a good thing for the game,” Rory McIlroy told The Telegraph. “I suppose if I don’t win it this time, I never will.”

Rory McIlroy was nominated in 2023, too. But he didn’t attend the event, saying it was not the same as it once was. He was unsure if he would win, as he had similar experiences in the past. And he was correct. It was Keely Hodgkinson who won the BBC SPOTY Award last year.

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Can public voting and timing work against Rory McIlroy?

Rory McIlroy has a commanding position with bookmakers, but the BBC Sports Personality of the Year has rarely followed a straightforward script. The public decides the award entirely, and that factor often shifts momentum away from outright favorites.

Although Rory McIlroy’s betting odds are way higher than others, it still does not confirm his win. In fact, if past hints at anything, it is that there have been very few golfers who have actually won the BBC SPOTY Award. The only two times golfers had won the BBC SPOTY Award were way back in 1957 and 1989. Dai Rees won it in 1957, while Sir Nick Faldo got it in 1989. This means that it has been 35 years since any golfer won the silver trophy handed to the winner of the BBC Sports Personality of the Year Award.

McIlroy did come close a few times, though. The closest he came was 2nd, when he finished behind Lewis Hamilton in 2014. Danny Willett earned a nomination in 2016 but failed to win the award.

Historically, footballers and Formula 1 drivers tend to perform strongly in public voting. Lando Norris’ Abu Dhabi triumph arrived fresh in viewers’ minds, while England’s Euro 2025 success ensured widespread national engagement. Recency often plays a quiet but influential role, and McIlroy’s Masters victory came months earlier in the sporting calendar. In fact, he didn’t even win the PGA Tour Player of the Year award for it.

There is also the question of reach. Golf is a widely followed game. People all over the world follow it. However, it does not draw the same level of audience interest as sports like football and rugby. This is something that has affected past contenders, including Rory McIlroy himself in 2014.

While betting markets reflect probability, the outcome often hinges on timing and visibility. Rory McIlroy enters the ceremony as the man to beat, but history shows that the final result remains uncertain until the very end.