Everything looked shiny on the West Coast when the Dodgers won a 20-team sweepstakes to sign a 23-year-old phenom with a 2.10 ERA across four seasons and a 102-mph fastball. But the hype quickly faded when his velocity dipped and a shoulder injury then sidelined him for two long months just after eight starts with a 4.72 ERA. His highly anticipated return to the mound on a rehab assignment only raised more questions as he posted a 7.07 ERA, giving up 11 runs in just 14 innings in his last 4 outings, with a velocity around 93-96 mph.

So, when manager Dave Roberts said, “like I said a couple weeks ago, we’ve got to go with our best guys…this is the time, right now…again, Roki has gone through a lot this year. And he still has a ton of talent. We just want to see more,” after that stretch, it sounded like Roki Sasaki’s chances for 2025 were over. But then, Roberts offered one final chance…

Roberts laid out a challenging to-do list for Roki Sasaki in his most recent comments. “Again, I think the main thing for Roki is just performance. Increasing his velocity and command. Just pitching well,” Roberts said. “We’re in a playoff race. So he’s got to continue to raise his level to be here.” 

And for Sasaki himself, he was very well aware of the challenge ahead to completely return to the team that was already competing with itself and for their division lead.

“My every intention is to get back on the major league mound and pitch again. With that being said, I do need to fight for the opportunity, too. I don’t think that I’ll just be given the opportunity right away,” Sasaki shared. “So you know this month is going to be important for me, since I’ll be facing hitters throughout.”

So, if Sasaki does find his form, where would he even fit?

If you ask right now whether Sasaki has any shot in the rotation, the honest answer is no. The Death Star, as Eno Sarris of The Athletic called it, has fully formed. The door is firmly shut in a room that was full of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, rookie Emmet Sheehan, and Shohei Ohtani. And they are literally untouchable as they led all of Baseball in collective ERA of 3.58 and 5.58 average innings per start, third-best in the league in the month of August.

This leaves the bullpen as Sasaki’s only, and very narrow, path to the October roster.

The unit ranks a mediocre 13th in MLB with a 4.11 ERA and a recent loss in Baltimore, where the bullpen blew Yamamoto’s near no-hitter, exposing the group’s fragility. Evan Phillips was down for the season with TJ in May. And Brock Stewart, the team’s trade deadline acquisition, also went down with shoulder inflammation. Alex Vesia was also out on IL due to a strained oblique since August 21. Only relievers like Jack Dreyer, Justin Wrobleski, and Ben Casparius had their FIPs below 3.50.

So there’s some chance for Sasaki to fill that void, but with a command that allows 22 walks against 24 strikeouts in the majors and eight walks against eight strikeouts in Triple-A, but it’s not an easy one.