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Image: IMAGO
Imago
Image: IMAGO
Tarik Skubal’s stunning $32 million arbitration win over the Tigers might be just the beginning of a much bigger chain reaction. What looks like a personal payday could quietly reshape how teams view elite young arms across the league. And if you think this ends in Detroit, think again, because names like Roki Sasaki and Paul Skenes may soon find themselves at the center of a very similar storm.
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As Jared Carrabis wrote: “This is huuuuuuge as far as precedent is concerned. Paul Skenes now stands to make some unforeseen salary figures in arbitration if his career continues on the same trajectory. Awesome for Skubal. Deserves every penny.”
This is huuuuuuge as far as precedent is concerned. Paul Skenes now stands to make some unforeseen salary figures in arbitration if his career continues on the same trajectory. Awesome for Skubal. Deserves every penny. https://t.co/JR6HvM5gxZ
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) February 5, 2026
That reaction matches what Jeff Passan reported, confirming Skubal defeated the Detroit Tigers in arbitration after the team filed at $19 million and Skubal filed at $32 million. The panel sided with Skubal, making it the highest arbitration salary ever and pushing past Juan Soto’s previous $31 million mark.
This immediately puts Paul Skenes into the spotlight, because Skubal’s case showed that elite pitchers can now challenge arbitration ceilings in ways that weren’t realistic before. With Skenes already building a résumé that mirrors generational dominance, his future arbitration years could now look far more expensive than the system traditionally allowed.
The impact also extends into trade speculation. With Skubal still linked to blockbuster rumors and names like Roki Sasaki being floated in prospect-haul discussions, this ruling changes the financial math for teams trying to acquire or keep an ace. If arbitration can now reach $30 million-plus territory, the cost of controlling elite pitching is no longer predictable. And that’s exactly why the Sasaki conversation refuses to go away, because once the price of elite pitching rises, the trade market gets even louder.
Why the Sasaki-for-Skubal Debate Keeps Coming Back
“Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers rumors were dead for over a month. All clickbait & bad podcast content for anyone going off some random Bleacher Report proposal. Even more cringe, fans refusing to trade Sasaki for Skubal. You wouldn’t refuse a shot with a future HOF starter with 2 Cy Youngs.”
Tarik Skubal to Dodgers rumors were dead for over a month. All click bait & bad podcast content for anyone going off some random Bleacher Report proposal. Even more cringe, fans refusing to trade Sasaki for Skubal. You wouldn’t refuse a shot with a future HOF starter with 2 Cy…
— Klein25 (@Klein25) February 5, 2026
That quote reflects how much of the Skubal-to-Dodgers conversation has been driven by speculation rather than real transactional signals. Most of the trade-heavy discussion around Skubal has been framed more as “what Detroit would demand” than reports of actual negotiations, with much of the buzz coming from hypothetical blockbuster packages. Additionally, the Tigers’ signing of Framber Valdez to a three-year, $115 million deal further reinforces the idea that Detroit is still operating in win-now mode rather than preparing for a reset.
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At the same time, the frustration over fans refusing a Sasaki-for-Skubal swap is easy to understand once the numbers are laid out. Skubal is not a projection or an upside bet; he is already an established superstar.
He is a two-time reigning Cy Young winner and just won his arbitration case, securing a record $32 million salary after Detroit filed at $19 million.
More importantly, his performance backs it up. Skubal’s 2025 numbers were dominant across the board: a 2.21 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and a league-best 187 ERA+, the best by an AL pitcher since 2022. He also led with a 6.5 bWAR and posted an elite 7.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
His stuff was just as lethal, with a +25 run value changeup and an MLB-best +51 overall run value, finishing ahead of every other pitcher in the sport.
Put simply, that résumé is exactly what fuels the “future Hall of Fame” talk. Pitchers who stack multiple Cy Young Awards while sustaining elite dominance are historically rare, and teams chasing championships almost never get a realistic chance to trade for one in his prime.