The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series finale at Phoenix Raceway will forever be etched as arguably the most unusually cruel heartbreak in Denny Hamlin’s career. The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran put on a masterclass of race management and speed, starting from pole position and leading an astounding 208 laps. With the race winding down, Hamlin held a comfortable lead of over 3 seconds against the field.

He stated that he was “40 seconds from a championship” when a disaster struck with a cut tire on William Byron’s car, sending the race into chaotic overtime, erasing all of Hamlin’s dominance in an instant. Under the final caution, Hamlin’s crew chief, Chris Gayle, made the seemingly conservative choice to take four fresh tires on the No. 11 Toyota, aiming for maximum grip. However, the move backfired when Kyle Larson’s team chose only 2 tires and leapfrogged Hamlin on the grid and in the Championship.

The Carl Edwards parallel of Denny Hamlin’s future

In the immediate aftermath of the race, just ahead of the NASCAR Awards, a reporter posed the difficult question, citing the social media speculation drawing comparisons to the shock retirement of Carl Edwards in 2017 following his Championship near-miss. Hamlin’s response, delivered in a state of emotional and mental exhaustion, indicated just how deeply the loss had affected him, saying, “I mean, I plan to. I have a contract, too. But at this point, there’s just absolutely no way that I would even… I don’t even think about a race car right now. I’m going to need some time on this.”

The mention of Edwards is a direct reference to the format’s ability to crush a driver’s desire to continue competing. The 2016 NASCAR Cup Series season was one of Edwards’ best, highlighting 3 victories, including a dominant win at Bristol, a dramatic bump-and-run triumph over teammate Kyle Busch at Richmond, and a rain-shortened victory at Texas that propelled him into the Champions 4. His title bid, however, ended in heartbreak at the season finale in Homestead-Miami.

While battling for the lead late in the race, he went to block fellow contender Joey Logano on a restart, and the ensuing contact sent his No. 19 Toyota into the inside wall and out of the race, resulting in a 4th-place finish in the standings. Just weeks later, in January 2017, Edwards stunned the motorsports world by announcing his immediate retirement from NASCAR, walking away from the sport and his full-time ride at Joe Gibbs Racing despite having a championship within his grasp.

Insiders think of a similar fate for Hamlin, who, having dominated the Phoenix race throughout and holding a commanding lead just moments before the fateful caution, felt the format’s cruelty more keenly than in any of his previous 5 Championship 4 attempts. After the race, reporters noted that he sat motionless in his car for a lengthy period after the race. 

He articulated the shock, saying, “I really don’t have much for emotion right now. Just numb about it ’cause just in shock. That’s about it.” Furthermore, he was profoundly critical of the sport’s inherent randomness, lamenting the failure to translate pure performance into the ultimate prize: “This sport can drive you absolutely crazy ’cause sometimes speed, talent, all that stuff, just does not matter.”

The heartbreak was amplified by the highly personal stakes Hamlin had publicly attached to the race. Days before the finale, Hamlin revealed that his ailing 75-year-old father, Dennis Hamlin, was battling a serious illness and was too sick to travel, making Phoenix likely his father’s final chance to see his son win the title. Hamlin has earlier revealed, “I know for a fact this is my last chance for my dad to see it. I don’t want him going and never getting to see the moment.” This made winning even more important for him as well as his fans.

Despite the emotional turmoil, Hamlin’s position differs significantly from Edwards’ due to his dual role as a driver and a co-owner of 23XI Racing with Michael Jordan. While Edwards retired with no ownership ties, Hamlin’s commitment to his own team, which continues to operate under a technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing and is deeply involved in the ongoing charter lawsuit against NASCAR, provides a contractual and fiduciary anchor.

Inside the Championship twist that turned Denny Hamlin’s dominance into heartbreak

Under the blazing Arizona sun, Denny Hamlin looked like a man finally ready to rewrite his legacy. His No. 11 Toyota was locked in, smooth on corner exits, and sharp on the radio. With 6 wins behind him and the early laps falling perfectly into place, it felt like fate was finally aligning for the JGR star. But when the final caution flew on Lap 309, everything changed.

As Chris Gabehart, Hamlin’s former crew chief and now JGR’s competition director, explained, the championship’s climax was as unpredictable as a “coin flip.” “You had cars that had stayed out. With the tire wear, the way it was, the championship four cars, is something that I never ever would have imagined,” Gabehart said. The pit strategy chaos left Hamlin buried in 11th, while Larson’s two-tire call propelled him into contention. When the green flag waved again, Hamlin’s charge stalled just short of glory.

Even in defeat, neither Gabehart nor Hamlin pointed fingers at Goodyear. “You can’t blame Goodyear. We are beating the crap out of these tires trying to go fast,” Gabehart admitted, noting how teams constantly push tire limits for speed. Hamlin echoed the sentiment, praising Goodyear’s effort to “keep pushing the limits on softer [tires] to try to put it back in the driver’s hands.” As Gabehart quipped with a grin, “We’re just pushing Goodyear to the edge, and no matter what they build, we’re going to exploit it.”