In a season defined by unpredictability, Kyle Busch’s struggles on NASCAR’s oval tracks have become one of the sport’s biggest talking points. Once feared as a perennial title contender, Busch is now marooned in mid-pack mediocrity. As he misses out on the playoffs for another straight year, his winless drought has exposed deeper problems for him and his team, Richard Childress Racing (RCR). With road and street courses offering rare glimpses of his former brilliance, questions loom about whether the two-time champion can rediscover his oval edge before the slide becomes permanent.

Kyle Busch’s declining arch from title contender to mid-pack on ovals

The fall of Kyle Busch as an oval racing force in NASCAR has been as stark as it is confounding. After more than 80 races without a win, Busch has not cracked the top five at any traditional oval since the 2024 Southern 500. His aggressive style, which was once a ticket to victory lane, now frequently leaves him spinning out or missing execution on key runs.

A big reason for this could be the Gen 7. Busch’s downfall and Gen-7’s rise happen around the same time. Kevin Harvick had his two cents to add to this, as he said, “Everything that made Kyle Busch good up until this Gen-7 car was the fact that he could drive it over the limit, save the car, and he could tell you every single thing that you needed to put in the car to make it go fast. He knew the springs, he knew the shocks, he knew everything that was going on, not gonna happen in Gen-7 racing.”

Harvick’s point highlights how the Gen-7 car stripped away much of the driver’s technical influence. In the pre-Next-Gen days, a driver like Busch could maximize his edge by pushing the car to its limits and having good control over the setup minutely. But because the Next Gen is more standardized now for all, especially with specs and limits, it just levels the field and does not help Busch do what he’s best at and what makes him unique, especially on ovals. His aggression that put him in a winning position before is now causing him to overdrive instead.

Instead of dictating race pace with bold tire management and lightning restarts, Busch has found himself battling just to stay inside the top 15 on tracks like Bristol, Atlanta, and Richmond, with his average finish hovering near 17th. At RCR, expectations were sky-high, yet his results have been underwhelming, with Busch’s struggles mirroring the team’s own inconsistencies.

Is Kyle Busch’s road and street success masking deeper issues?

Busch’s only flashes of elite performance in 2025 emerged outside the ovals: a fifth-place finish at COTA and another at the Chicago Street Course. These strong showings contrast sharply with his oval results. On one hand, they hinted at adaptability but also masked chronic problems in week-to-week execution.

Like SVG and other road course specialists, Busch excelled where setup and driver feedback could overcome raw speed deficits, typically in races with more strategic nuance. But on traditional ovals, where consistent speed, tire wear, and track position reign, he has been unable to translate those road course lessons to sustained success.

Leading 42 laps at COTA and qualifying sixth at Chicago, Busch demonstrated he can still wring performance from the Gen-7 car, but only under the right conditions. However, his lack of pace on ovals, infrequent top-fives, and declining bonus points highlight a bigger performance gap masked by isolated road course results, rather than signifying a full return to form.

How are team dynamics and setup woes at RCR affecting Kyle Busch?

As Chevrolet teams like Hendrick Motorsports surge ahead with refined setups and collaborative engineering, RCR still struggles with persistent pace and execution issues. Busch has praised his team’s tireless effort but admits the “lack of speed” has been the critical problem.

“It is not due to lack of effort, that’s for damn sure…everybody at RCR…working as hard as they can…but the car just hasn’t matched the velocity needed.” Crew chief Randall Burnett and RCR management have publicly acknowledged setup and aerodynamic challenges and are exploring changes as part of a 2025 expansion and crew update plan.

Pit strategy miscues, inconsistent tire management, and a lack of technical synergy compared to elite rivals have further widened the gap. While manufacturer support from Chevrolet remains solid, the incremental improvements needed to crack the top five have yet to materialize. Other Chevrolet teams’ willingness to innovate with data and in-race adjustments puts RCR in a reactive posture.

Can Kyle Busch reverse the slide before it’s too late?

For Busch to break his drought and reclaim contender status, substantial changes must be made before 2026. The roadmap includes aggressive off-season engineering overhauls, new personnel on the pit crew, and deeper integration with Chevrolet’s technical support network.

But more important than that, Busch himself must adapt his style to the nuances of the Gen-7 platform rather than relying on old habits. Overcoming RCR’s inertia will mean a more proactive strategy in qualifying and race execution, plus leveraging his proven road course strengths into oval setups.

Bottom line

With his reputation and season stake on the line, Kyle Busch must find ways to close the performance gap (both in the garage and at the wheel) before another year slips by without a win. For RCR, this is the inflection point: innovate, or risk another season of playing catch-up. And as for Busch, the remaining races of the season are a crucial window to prove that he can still dominate the ovals before time starts to catch up.