A messy Saturday morning at Atlanta Motor Speedway has turned into an even messier situation for Joe Gibbs Racing and its drivers. Persistent rain showers and nearby lightning forced NASCAR to cancel Cup Series qualifying altogether, leaving the starting grid for Sunday’s race to be determined by the recently updated performance metric.

The 2026 formula is straightforward but unforgiving: 30% owner standings position + 70% finishing position in the previous race. And after a chaotic, crash-filled Daytona 500, that metric dealt wildly different results across the garage. For Tyler Reddick, the system couldn’t have worked out better.

Fresh off his Daytona 500 victory, he’ll start from the pole in the No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota and enjoy the coveted first pit stall. Alongside him is Joey Logano, the Duel winner who survived a wild ride to finish third in the 500. Ricky Stenhouse Jr starts third. It’s the kind of front-row pairing that promises early fireworks at a track that races more like a superspeedway than a traditional intermediate.

But for Denny Hamlin and the rest of JGR’s lineup, the news is disastrous. Hamlin will roll off 29th, far deeper in the pack than he’d hoped for. His teammates don’t fare much better either. Christopher Bell starts 32nd, Chase Briscoe sits 34th, and Ty Gibbs begins 25th.

At the reconfigured Atlanta Motor Speedway, now a high-speed, drafting-heavy battleground, track position is everything. Since 2022, the venue has mimicked the unpredictability of Daytona and Talladega, where pack racing and “Big Ones” (as seen in the 2025 Ambetter Health 400 race) are almost guaranteed.

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Starting deep means living in the danger zone, where one bad push or wrong bump can end a day instantly. For Hamlin and JGR, Sunday just became a survival mission long before the green flag waves.