When NASCAR rolls into Michigan, it brings history and chaos. From Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s emotional 2012 win, which ended his 143-race winless streak, to Kevin Harvick’s dominant runs in 2022, Michigan International Speedway has been the stage for legends. But for all the iconic moments, there’s one recovery rival no driver can outrun: the weather.

In recent years, Mother Nature has kept a firm grip on the track. The Cup Series races in both 2023 and 2024 were postponed to Monday due to relentless rain, while the 2022 event saw hours of delay. The Firekeepers Casino 400 is back in action this year. And now, as another race weekend looms, the clouds are back too—and they are looking menacing. Cloud Michigan is gearing up for another rain-fueled test, and the weather forecast has teams and fans bracing for impact.

Michigan weather is here to stay

There’s fast, and then there is Michigan fast. Michigan International Speedway (MIS) isn’t just another oval on the calendar; it’s where engines scream past 200 mph, and drivers put everything on the line on one of the sport’s widest and slickest stages. With its 18° banking and multi-groove corners, MIS has long been known for two things: high-speed drama and an atmosphere that rewards the bold. But there is one wildcard that no crew chief can outmaneuver—the weather.

Set in the heart of the Great Lakes region, Michigan’s summer skies are as unpredictable as a last-lap restart. This weekend’s weather forecast is keeping teams on edge. According to raceweather.net, Friday and Saturday are clear, but Sunday—the day of the FireKeepers Casino 400 – has a 30% chance of rain, especially in the afternoon.

And if history is any indicator, the small percentage could mean a full-blown postponement. It’s déjà vu for fans and teams alike after back-to-back rain delays in 2023 and 2024. And when the skies do open up, the stakes only get higher. A damp track at Michigan can completely shake up tire grip, fuel strategy, and pit stop timing. It becomes a chess match at 190 mph. One moment you’re battling for position, the next you’re hydroplaning toward the wall. Delays throw off rhythms, warm-ups, and the team’s momentum. MIS might be wide and forgiving on paper, but when it rains? It’s a different demon altogether.

Just ask Tyler Reddick. In 2024, he sat down with every bit of that chaos and came out the other side holding a checkered flag. The race was postponed to Monday due to the rain, and that is where Reddick secured the win in the dramatic second overtime finish. But for Redick, it was more than just another win—it was deeply personal. Days before the race, Reddick lost his mentor and motorsport icon, Scott Bloomquist. This win became a tribute. “I can’t help but sit here in Victory Lane and think of Scott Bloomquist. Huge man to me, and an incredible role model and legend of dirt racing and motorsports.”

After qualifying 28th, Reddick faced an uphill battle throughout the race. Despite starting deep in the field, he methodically worked his way forward, overcoming challenges and capitalizing on the opportunities that arose. By the final stage, redhead positioned himself among the leaders and in a thrilling double overtime conclusion, he managed to fend off William Byron to secure his second victory of the season and the seventh of his NASCAR Cup Series career. It is safe to say that this is Tyler Reddick’s favorite track. However, a famous Joe Gibbs Racing driver shares his thoughts on the Speedway.

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Denny Hamlin’s love for Michigan

Denny Hamlin might be a Toyota man deep in Ford country, but when it comes to Michigan International Speedway, even he admits he’s got a soft spot. With a strong track record at MIS and consistent top 10 finishes, the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing driver admits his opinion is a little biased because it’s hard to argue with his enthusiasm. He goes on to say, “I got asked a question, probably a couple weeks ago, about what is the most underrated track that NASCAR had. And I didn’t say it, but to me, it’s Michigan; it really is. It puts on some of the best racing that NASCAR has to offer.”

The 2-mile oval, nestled in the Irish hill, has only gotten better in Hamlin’s eyes with the arrival of NASCAR’s Next-Gen car. While some tracks have struggled to adapt, Michigan embraced the change like a turbocharged glove. “Generally speaking, you just can’t get a better race. I mean, while the track is big, the cars stay close together. There’s huge drafting opportunities down those straightaways. The track is smooth. It’s called multiple lanes, you can raise. So, it’s all just good things.”

But Hamlin isn’t just impressed by what happens on the track; he’s also taken note of the off-track improvements. NASCAR has put money into facility upgrades at MIS, and according to Hamlin, it shows. “It’s just one of those fantastic racetracks at NASCAR put a bunch of money in as well to upgrade the facilities. The infield is fantastic. The garage area all got upgraded.”

With the race, we moved back to June for the first time since 2019, and Hamlin says it’s returned to form. “I feel like it’s the perfect time of the year for the race there. The weather just can’t get better.”

However, the weather at MIS is never something to bet on. If rain holds off this Sunday, Hamlin says the real factor will be the thermometer. He explains, “Typically, the cooler the racetrack, the faster the car goes. Which means that all the cars go faster, which clumps them closer together. The hotter it is, the more they tend to spread out.”

With two wins already this season, Hamlin’s eye is on Michigan, not just for glory, but for positioning. “It’s one that I’ve got circled on my list as ‘ we need to get a win here to solidify a position in our rankings in the playoff order.” Whether the skies are clear or not, Michigan is about to deliver. The NASCAR Cup Series is scheduled to take the green flag at 2 pm EST this Sunday, with all the action airing live on Prime Video.