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USA Today via Reuters

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USA Today via Reuters

At the start of the year, this year, NASCAR President Steve Phelps gave fans a reason to dream bigger. He hinted at the possible arrival of not just a fourth, but even a fifth manufacturer into the sport. It sounded bold at the time. After all, for years, NASCAR had only three official Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs): Chevrolet, Ford, and Toyota. “What that looks like, when they come,  it’s still up in the air. I hope we can get the fourth OE across the finish line soon, maybe a 5th after that,” he had said in March this year.

Phelps’ comment felt more like a hopeful wish than a strategic development. However, in recent weeks, those early whispers have turned into a roar. A long-awaited return has cracked the door wide open. On Sunday in Michigan, Dodge officially confirmed its comeback to NASCAR, ending a 13-year absence. The announcement came with a high-voltage unveiling of the Dodge RAM 1500 concept race truck, signaling Dodge’s return to the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series.

This comeback felt not only emotional but also strategic, given that 40% of NASCAR’s fanbase are truck owners, many of them loyal to the Dodge RAM. But just as fans began celebrating Dodge’s return, NASCAR dropped another bombshell. In the same breath that welcomed Dodge back, NASCAR EVP John Probst confirmed the sport is now “very close” to locking in a fifth manufacturer. After two decades of limited OEM diversity, the tide is finally shifting rapidly.

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NASCAR hints at the beginning of a new era!

On Sunday afternoon in Motor City, the home of the American auto industry, NASCAR and Dodge jointly announced the brand’s long-anticipated re-entry into the sport. The return starts with Dodge RAM in the Truck Series beginning in 2026. The announcement, hosted at a high-profile event, was more than just symbolic. It marked the first new OEM addition since Toyota joined back in the early 2000s. But the buzz didn’t stop there.

John Probst, NASCAR’s Chief Racing Development Officer, didn’t hold back during the media session. “I don’t want to jinx ourselves, but I would say we are very close with one other; can’t speak for them — obviously it’s their decision to make — (but) we would love for them to decide to come into NASCAR,” Probst quoted as saying by SBJ. His words were firm but cautious. NASCAR is deep in talks, and optimism is growing. “There’s one or two others that we’re a little earlier in the discussions with, but it’s also looking pretty positive,” he further added.

Probst also emphasized that such commitments aren’t made lightly. “It requires a lot of research and approvals at the highest levels. We’re confident right now. We like the position we’re in and think we’re a pretty good investment for an OEM,” he explained. When asked about how long it might take, he joked, “Well, I hope it does [happen soon] because I’ll probably be retired if it’s 20 years again.” The sentiment was clear: the wait for the next OEM might be much shorter than the last.

Notably, this is not the first time someone in NASCAR has openly spoken about more than four OEMs in the sport. Earlier in 2024, driver-turned-owner and 2012 Cup series champion Brad Keselowski had asked for it. “The OEM picture and landscape is a significant threat. NASCAR’s been operating with three OEMs now for probably a decade, a decade and a half. I feel like the sport needs about four, maybe five OEMs to be kind of its max healthy position,” he had said.

The RFK racing co-owner had emphasized that the current three-manufacturer model leaves NASCAR exposed. If even one OEM exits, the sport would face major instability. But there is a question of who can be the fifth manufacturer? Amid all speculations, Honda appears to be lurking in the background. Chuck Schifsky, Honda’s Motorsports Manager, told SBJ, “Honda continues to explore multiple options for our future endeavors in U.S. motorsport. We have no news to share at this time.” While careful not to confirm anything, Honda’s consideration of moving away from IndyCar only intensifies speculation. They may very well be the unnamed fifth OEM Probst is referring to.

Notably, NASCAR had started its business in 1949 with nine OEMs, and now five would kick off a new era. With Dodge already confirmed and another brand on the brink, NASCAR is in uncharted territory. The return of old legends and the possible entry of global giants could reshape the future of stock car racing. But for all the excitement, there’s a side of this story that raises concern. Could the return of more manufacturers actually hurt the sport in the long run?

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The OEM dilemma of NASCAR!

Bringing in new manufacturers sounds great, until the balance tips. NASCAR’s past proves it. Every time a fourth OEM joined, another one left. AMC entered the ’70s. They were gone within years. Pontiac tried to stick around in the early 2000s. After Dodge returned, Pontiac folded. In 2007, Toyota entered the Cup series. By 2012, Dodge was out. Each new NASCAR manufacturer arrival sparked a shuffle, one that usually ended with an exit.

Here’s why it happens. NASCAR has a fixed number of teams and sponsors. New OEMs need top-tier teams to make their entry worth it. But there aren’t enough elite seats to go around. If a new brand can’t snag strong teams, it fades fast. Worse, the financial burden skyrockets. More OEMs mean more competition, more spending, more R&D, and more pressure. That pressure is what drove Dodge out in 2012, even after winning the championship.

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The sport turned into a spending war, and the brand couldn’t keep pace. With four charters held back for a new OEM, the infrastructure is there. OEMs are also sensitive to market returns. If their cars lose on Sunday and don’t sell on Monday, they pull the plug. The fear now is that the return of Dodge and the potential arrival of Honda or others could push an existing NASCAR manufacturer out. The result? NASCAR may be back where it started: three manufacturers and a trail of broken promises.

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