The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs enter Round 2 with Texas and Talladega looming as potential lifelines for Team Penske. Joey Logano, with three career Talladega wins and another at Texas, and Ryan Blaney, Penske’s most recent Talladega winner in 2023, have historically thrived at these tracks. But despite that pedigree, advanced data models suggest history may not be enough, forecasting turbulence for Penske just as the playoff grid tightens. Bubba Wallace sits a precarious +1 above the cut line, Chase Elliott holds only a +5 cushion, while Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Kyle Larson enjoy more comfortable margins. At volatile venues where one wreck can reshape the standings, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

A data-driven NASCAR playoffs shock for Penske and the Bubble

Auto Racing Analytics (ARA) went a perfect 4-for-4 with its Round 1 predictions and has now released its Round 2 outlook. The algorithm expects Ryan Blaney to gain the most points with a projected +51, followed by Kyle Larson (+46) and William Byron (+44). Denny Hamlin (+33) and Christopher Bell (+22) also trend upward in the model. But not all the news is positive. The model marks Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Harrison Burton, and Tyler Reddick as projected losers, with Keselowski facing a steep -25 point slide. The inclusion of Logano, a proven force at both Texas and Talladega, makes this projection stand out, particularly given Penske’s historical strength at those venues.

The data goes further, suggesting that two Penske drivers could be among the four eliminated in the Round of 12. That is a striking outlook considering that Logano, the 2018 and 2022 champion, has built his reputation on clutch playoff performances at exactly these types of tracks. For Bubba Wallace, the model is less damning but equally uncertain. His projection sits at neutral to modest gains, leaving his +1 playoff cushion fragile at best. For a driver who has run well at Talladega before, including his 2021 win, being flagged as a bubble candidate underlines how slim his margin for error truly is.

What makes the ARA forecast compelling is not just its numbers, but its willingness to contradict conventional wisdom. Logano has averaged a 12.9 finish at Talladega across 30 starts, and Penske’s superspeedway setups are among the most consistent in the field. Yet the algorithm factors in more than history. It weighs form, consistency, and crash probabilities. This has, in part, contributed to the success of the first round predictions. That reasoning leaves Wallace precariously balanced and casts doubt on Penske’s usual safety net.

The question now is whether Penske’s proven strength at Talladega and Texas can overturn an algorithm that has yet to miss this postseason. If ARA’s Round 2 projections prove as sharp as its Round 1 calls, the playoff standings could look very different by the time the Round of 8 arrives. For Wallace, Elliott, and the Penske camp, the next three races may define not only their 2025 campaigns but also whether data-driven models can truly outpace track history when it comes to predicting NASCAR’s most volatile moments. Meanwhile, statistics tell a different story ahead of the first round of 12 race.

USA today test ahead of round of 12 NASCAR playoffs

New Hampshire Motor Speedway’s one-mile oval has long separated the steady from the shaky. Known as the “Magic Mile,” it rewards patience, track position, and flawless execution rather than raw horsepower. With the playoffs in full swing, its timing could not be more pivotal. Drivers who have built strong resumes here have a chance to leverage history into momentum, while those clinging to the bubble cannot afford a stumble.

The current playoff standings sharpen that tension. Several heavyweights, including Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson, sit in relatively secure positions, while Bubba Wallace and Joey Logano hover dangerously close to elimination. A single stage point could prove decisive, and history shows New Hampshire has been ruthless when it comes to exposing weaknesses. The backdrop makes Sunday’s race feel less like another stop and more like a reckoning for both contenders and survivors.

Among the field, a few names consistently stand out at Loudon. Denny Hamlin, with multiple wins and an average finish of around 10th, has made the track one of his strongest venues. Brad Keselowski remains another name synonymous with success at New Hampshire. He boasts one of the best average finishes among active drivers. Martin Truex Jr., who ended a long New Hampshire drought with a win last year, has also reestablished himself as a force here. Even Kevin Harvick, in recent years, turned the Magic Mile into a showcase of dominance before his retirement. With Larson also carrying form and adaptability, the battle among this group could very well define the narrative of Sunday’s race.

For the rest, the challenge is simple. Either rise to meet the level of the proven New Hampshire specialists or risk falling behind in the playoff shuffle. If Hamlin or Keselowski can capitalize on their Loudon strengths, they may lock themselves deeper into the title fight. But if a bubble driver pulls off an upset, the playoff grid could look dramatically different by sundown. At the Magic Mile, history often decides the frontrunner, and this Sunday, it might also decide who still has a championship future