Toni Breidinger’s rise in NASCAR has our hearts racing and not always in a good way. At 25, she’s Toyota’s latest bet, driving the #5 TRICON Garage Toyota Tundra full-time in the 2025 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series. She’s got the look—a Victoria’s Secret model with five million social media followers—and a decent racing resume: 65 ARCA starts, fourth in 2024 points with 11 top-10s, and a historic 15th-place Truck debut at Kansas in 2023.

“I’ve learned a lot in the ARCA [Menards] Series,” she said in 2024. “I would not be making the step to the Truck Series without that kind of stepping stone.” But Toyota’s deal with her isn’t through their driver development program, and Paul Dosehal, group manager of Toyota Motor North America, recently revealed their real deal, leaving fans questioning the path she is embarking on with Toyota.

History is repeating itself for Toni Breidinger

Let’s rewind. Danica Patrick stormed NASCAR in 2012, the first woman to win an IndyCar race, bringing sponsors and headlines. She nabbed a pole at Daytona in 2013 but never won a Cup race. Her best finish was a sixth at Atlanta in 2014. Her fame soared, yet critics called her a “marketing gimmick.” Hailie Deegan followed, a hyped Toyota prospect who climbed to Xfinity in 2023. She snagged three ARCA West wins and a 2020 Rookie of the Year nod, but her Xfinity stint with AM Racing flopped, and she was axed mid-2024 after 17 races without any top-10s. What these two drivers had in common was a large social media presence that engulfed their driving skills; at least, for Deegan, this was glaringly obvious.

“I hate to see that,” Breidinger said when Deegan lost her ride. “She’s super talented.” Deegan’s now off to Indy NXT, leaving fans split on whether she was overhyped or under-supported. Both women rode big hype, Patrick with 1.8 million Instagram followers, Deegan with 1.3 million, yet struggled to match it on-track, but won three most popular driver awards in the Truck Series, highlighting her reach as a driver. We can see the eerie similarity with Toni.

Toyota’s deal with her is a marketing play, limiting her to just an “influencer from a driver standpoint.” That’s worrying as she’s following a shaky blueprint laid by names like Danica Patrick and Hailie Deegan, where hype outran results. Autoweek reports that Paul Dosehal said, “Breidinger is one of Toyota’s drivers contracted through the manufacturer’s marketing department instead of its driver development program. Her large social media following was one thing that attracted Toyota to her”

Breidinger’s story kicked into gear with her November 2024 TRICON signing. “Racing full-time with TRICON is a dream for me. It’s been a 15-year process to get here,” she said. Raising Cane’s, Celsius, and Sunoco backed her #5 truck and her Las Vegas run, which is her fifth Truck start. She was expected to have the potential to outshine Deegan. But not everyone’s sold. Her 2025 SI Swimsuit feature and social media influence have got a million-plus follower edge over Chase Elliott in global polls. Is she a driver or a brand? Toyota’s marketing angle fuels the fire, and we’re torn as her ARCA grit says yes, but the “influencer” tag screams caution.

The shadow of Patrick and Deegan looms large. Patrick’s 191 Cup starts dwarf Breidinger’s five Truck races, and Deegan’s Xfinity exit still seems hurtful. Fans see patterns—big sponsors, big platforms, shaky results. Breidinger’s got talent, no doubt, but her path feels scripted: model-turned-racer, Toyota’s golden ticket. Deep down, she doesn’t want to be ‘another failed Danica Patrick knockoff’, as some fans have labeled her.

Her Truck debut was solid, but the hype’s deafening. Meanwhile, Toyota’s other female prospect, Isabella Robusto, quietly racked up five top-5s in 11 ARCA races in 2024, prompting wild claims that she’s the real deal over Breidinger and Deegan.

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Fans are worried, not surprised

“Can’t fault her for that. If Toyota wants to put her in the truck that’s totally on them,” one fan posted. Toyota’s stuck by Toni Breidinger since ARCA, giving her simulator time and training at their Huntersville facility. She’s mentored by teammate Corey Heim, the 2025 Truck Series points leader, and her 2023 double-race day in ARCA and Trucks at Kansas has proved she’s tough. Breidinger’s not forcing this and it is actually Toyota calling the shots. She’s got the seat, but it’s their call whether she sinks or swims.

“I wish we could just have actual drivers not influencers,” another fan brought concerns. Toyota’s banking on her 2.3 million TikTok fans, not just her lap times, not the racer who outdid every woman in ARCA history with 27 top-10s. Toyota’s all-in and she’s their mainstream bridge. Her racing is legitimate, but that marketing label will not do her any good. Fans want laps, not likes, and we’re worried about whether she’s more hype than substance.

“I’m sure that’s a real boost to her on-track confidence,” a sarcastic voice chimed in. Hailie Deegan’s Xfinity flop after Toyota’s hype left scars, and Breidinger’s 27th at Daytona flags a learning curve. Her 15th at Kansas says she’s got it, but this hype might mess with her head. In her heart, she believes she is more proficient in running laps than doing photo shoots.

“I know people will make fun of this story, but I actually think it’s a budget reason. Because she’s probably making more than a development driver if she’s considered an influencer,” someone reasoned on X. She might out-earn rookies like Dean Thompson, who she replaced in the #5, because her fame pulls cash of $600,000 net worth. Maybe it’s cash over talent driving this. Toyota’s banking on her fame is paying off, and we’re scared it’s a gamble that might leave her stranded.

What do you think? Will Toni Breidinger’s popularity outshine her driving? Or will she prove that she is more than the ones who came before her? Let us know in the comments!