The Milwaukee Bucks have a franchise-altering decision to make. Whether to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo or trade him? Between now and the 2026 offseason, the Bucks must face the scathing reality. Voices in the NBA feel that Jon Horst & Co. have seemingly realized that the pathway to building a contender around Antetokounmpo is fading. Thus, opening a new path for the 29 franchises in the league to show interest, with the Los Angeles Lakers leading the list.

However, there’s a problem.

The LA Lakers might have to stop dreaming about Giannis Antetokounmpo

The idea of Giannis Antetokounmpo joining Luka Doncic and LeBron James sparks imagination across the league. However, reality quickly cools that excitement. The Los Angeles Lakers can line up expiring contracts and float Austin Reaves alongside a 2031 or 2032 two unprotected first-round picks. Even so, the distance of that pick weakens its pull. Therefore, Milwaukee gains little urgency to engage seriously.

Meanwhile, AR is the core of the problem. He signed a four-year contract worth $53.8 million in 2023, with his salary increasing annually and a player option for the 2026-27 season. Given Reaves’ exceptional performance exceeding contract expectations, a substantial raise is imminent, according to the league. Consequently, his present worth causes reluctance instead of advantage.

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Moreover, projections around Reaves point to a looming financial squeeze. Reports indicate his next contract could land anywhere between $180-$241 million, potentially at a maximum level. Consequently, Milwaukee would be inheriting future cost pressure without an immediate elite return. Therefore, while the Lakers can dream big, Reaves contract structure quietly blocks a realistic Giannis Antetokounmpo pursuit.

At the same time, the Lakers’ financial gravity is pulling them down. Their total commitments sit at $211 million, ranking fifth league-wide, while cap room rests at -$56.3 million near the bottom. Moreover, only $977,225 separates them from the first apron, with $12.8 million to the second. Therefore, flexibility barely exists, even before dreaming big.

Meanwhile, the Greek Freak carries a massive price tag. He is earning about $54.1 million in 2025-26, rising to $58.5 million in 2026-27, then $62.8 million via option, plus a 15% kicker. Therefore, Austin Reaves’ $53.8 million deal is clashing. Matching salaries without gutting depth becomes unrealistic for Los Angeles. Thus, Milwaukee gains leverage while the Lakers remain boxed in financially for now.

To clarify, the two-time MVP has made no move toward an exit. Since entering the league in 2013, Giannis Antetokounmpo has stayed loyal to Milwaukee, locking in long-term deals in 2016, 2020, and 2023. However, his recent right calf issue, expected to sideline him for several weeks, may quietly force the Bucks to confront bigger, franchise-shaping questions.

Giannis Antetokounmpo will miss extended time to recover from a right calf strain

“At the end, I could not move no more, so I had to stop playing,” the 31-year-old told the media. Antetokounmpo is likely going to have a lengthy absence after re-aggravating his right calf, the same issue that already cost him eight games earlier this season. The medical staff taped Giannis Antetokounmpo’s calf during the first half of Friday’s 102-100 loss against Denver. He moved gingerly afterward and exited permanently with 34 seconds left on the clock in Q4.

“After the MRI, they will tell me probably I popped something in my calf, or in my soleus, or something, probably give me a protocol of four to six weeks I’ll be out,” he further added. Moreover, the Greek forward feels that the medical reports wouldn’t be much different from what he heard after injuring the same calf last month.

“This is from my experience being around the NBA. After that, I’m going to work my butt off to come back. That will probably be the end of February, beginning of March,” Giannis mentioned. Antetokounmpo first injured his calf on December 3, returned on December 27, and has played under a minutes limit ever since.

So now, dreams meet reality right here. Milwaukee stands at a crossroads, torn between loyalty and logic. Meanwhile, Los Angeles feels the weight of ambition collide with limitation. Add Giannis Antetokounmpo’s uncertain health, and the picture sharpens. Therefore, timing, patience, and restraint may decide everything long before any blockbuster fantasy turns real.