The Golden State Warriors might be staring down the barrel of their biggest roster miscalculation since trading away Kevin Durant. And this time, it’s not about a fading veteran or a regrettable free agency miss, it’s about Jonathan Kuminga. The former No. 7 overall pick, has become more than just a name in a trade rumor or an intriguing young piece. He’s now the pivot point for Golden State’s present and future, and their failure to commit to him might blow up in their face.

If Kuminga accepts the Warriors’ $7.9 million qualifying offer, he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2026. More importantly, per NBA rules, he would be ineligible for trade this season. The Warriors would lose their most valuable trade chip for nothing. Steve Kerr, who’s been under fire for inconsistent usage of the young forward, is now forced to face what fans and analysts have long whispered: Kuminga was never fully in the plans. And now, that hesitancy might cost them the season.

The Warriors have tried to play both sides of the timeline, win now with Steph, Draymond, and Klay, while developing a young core. That approach already blew up with James Wiseman. Moses Moody’s future is murky. While Kuminga has been the biggest tease of the bunch, tantalizing, explosive, but mismanaged. Averaging 15.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.2 assists in 47 games during the 2024–25 season. In a stretch before his ankle injury, he even posted 24.3 points and 8 rebounds per game over six contests. After returning in March, he showed up again in the playoffs, averaging 20.8 points in the second round against Minnesota. “One NBA executive had a NSFW assessment of the Warriors’ future if Jonathan Kuminga accepts their qualifying offer,” Warriors on NBCS posted on X. 

The league executive told The Athletic, “If he takes the qualifying offer, the Warriors are f–ked from a team-building standpoint, because they need to get him on a deal where they can trade him.” And still, Steve Kerr couldn’t find consistent minutes for him. In fact, Kerr benched Kuminga during crucial playoff moments, two DNPs in the first-round series against Houston and inconsistent rotations throughout. Even with Butler and Curry sidelined at points, Kerr hesitated. That sent a clear message.

Kuminga is in no rush to accept Golden State’s offer. ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that Kuminga is “in good spirits” and weighing his options. Meanwhile, his camp led by agent Aaron Turner has been actively pursuing sign-and-trade possibilities. Sacramento and Phoenix have both been linked to him. The Kings, in particular, reportedly met with Kuminga and are still in the mix with a proposed four-team blockbuster that would send Kuminga to Sacramento in a sign-and-trade.

Golden State’s sticking point? They want a first-round pick. That’s not a dealbreaker in most offseasons. But right now, it’s killing the market. Phoenix doesn’t have the picks. Sacramento has shown reluctance. The Warriors are stuck holding out, and it’s biting them back.

Kuminga unmoved by Warriors’ $20 Million offer

Kuminga’s camp wants something close to $30 million annually. ‪And according to Marc Stein, the Warriors’ best offer has been around two years, $40 million. That’s $20 million per year, and a far cry from what Kuminga believes he’s worth. It’s also a number that doesn’t show real belief in his future. Golden State wants a short-term bridge deal that keeps them flexible under the second apron and lets them potentially trade him down the line.

Meanwhile, Kuminga wants starter money, a defined role, and a franchise that believes he’s a long-term star. That gap is massive. If Kuminga signs the one-year, $7.9 million qualifying offer by October 1, the Warriors are done. Not only would they lose all leverage in trade talks, but they’d also be unable to move Kuminga at the February deadline due to the six-month trade restriction that comes with accepting the QO.

Kuminga could play the season on an expiring deal and leave next summer as an unrestricted free agent. Adding another failed experiment from the now-defunct “two-timeline” plan. Steve Kerr and the front office never saw Kuminga as part of the foundation. They wanted him as a versatile athletic tool, a role player in a veteran machine. Now the Warriors are boxed in. They either pay him what he’s asking, or they trade him for below market value. If neither happens? He could destroy their entire trade deadline strategy by signing the qualifying offer. And in the middle of it all, Steph Curry, 37 and still elite, is waiting for help.