As July fades, the Warriors’ offseason feels like it’s on pause because of one name: Jonathan Kuminga. Despite being drafted seventh overall in 2021, his role on the team remains unsettled. His camp reportedly wants a four-year deal worth $25 to $30 million annually. That’s a bold ask, especially with Golden State’s payroll nearing $171 million. So now, big decisions hang in the balance. Can they afford Kuminga without losing flexibility to sign guys like De’Anthony Melton or Al Horford?

That uncertainty grows when you hear what NBA insiders think Kuminga is worth. The Athletic surveyed 16 front-office executives, and most placed his value between $17 and $25 million per year. One compared him to Jaden McDaniels, saying, “McDaniels is great in his role, but J.K. is more talented and has higher upside if he ever can hit.” That kind of praise shows there’s respect for his potential. But is potential enough to meet his price?

On Locked On Warriors, Matt Kolsky explained just how deep the ripple effect runs: “It has kept them from doing literally anything this offseason.” He added, “Jonathan Kuminga has lots of leverage. You can tell just by the fact the Warriors are waiting on him to make their other signing.” But what happens if he takes the $8 million qualifying offer? “Then he’s gone for nothing and you can’t trade him,” Kolsky warned.

That route would give him a no-trade clause and make him unrestricted next year, a risky option for both sides. Moreover, he also added, “They may have deals in place with Seth and Horford and Melton, and that’s not a terrible offseason if they make it happen.” However, he also pointed out that ‘not terrible’ doesn’t mean that it would be a “great offseason” either!

Chuck Walter argued, “The leverage that he has is leverage in screwing the Warriors, not necessarily leverage that’s going to help his career.” While he might win short term, Walter explained that Kuminga could end up with playoff DNPs again, just like last season. If that happens, his value entering free agency may drop.

Kolsky pushed back slightly, saying, “His main piece of leverage may well be mutually assured destruction, but the Warriors don’t want that.” With the dynasty window closing, the franchise simply can’t afford to waste another year.

And that’s where things get tense behind the scenes. Kolsky pointed out, “There is a divide inside the building on what the best path forward with this guy is.” He said Mike Dunleavy seems to view Kuminga as someone who should never have been DNP’d late last season. However, “Steve Kerr and the coaches… it’s not all the coaches,” Kolsky noted. Some on staff believe Kuminga deserves more minutes, while others don’t. That internal conflict, more than the contract, is the real issue. Until it’s resolved, the Warriors will be stuck in inactivity.

Why Jonathan Kuminga’s qualifying offer could be Golden State’s worst-case scenario

As the Warriors weigh their next move, one decision by Jonathan Kuminga could quietly reshape their entire future. The team has reportedly offered him a two-year deal worth around $40 million, but there’s another path on the table that brings far more risk. If Kuminga accepts the one-year, $7.9 million qualifying offer, Golden State could find themselves trapped in a scenario no one wants.

One anonymous executive explained it bluntly to The Athletic‘s Fred Katz: “If he takes the qualifying offer, the Warriors are f–ked from a team-building standpoint, because they need to get him on a deal where they can trade him.” The logic is simple. A short-term deal gives the Warriors no flexibility. They can’t flip Kuminga at the deadline. They risk losing him for nothing. And worse, he gains a no-trade clause.

While Kuminga reportedly wants a long-term deal at over $25 million annually, the market has not lived up to expectations. That makes the qualifying offer a tempting fallback. It allows him to play out one more season, then test unrestricted free agency next summer with no restrictions. From his side, it offers freedom. From the Warriors’ side, it could be a dead end.

Golden State ideally wants to secure Kuminga on a bigger deal, not just to lock him in, but to keep options open. A larger contract could help in future trades, should they pivot toward acquiring another star. But until he signs, either way, everything hangs in the balance.

The Warriors may hope it doesn’t come to this, but the qualifying offer remains a quiet threat, one that could complicate their rebuild more than anyone expected.