Brent Venables’ seat is scorching hot heading into this season, as Oklahoma fans are far from pleased. His 22-17 record over three years, including two disappointing 6-7 seasons, has fueled growing impatience in Norman. The Sooners’ aim in hiring Venables wasn’t mediocrity; they sought a championship-caliber team. However, their move to the SEC has exposed vulnerabilities. While a 10-3 season in 2023 offered a glimmer of hope, 2024 extinguished it. Now, anything short of a championship run could lead to his dismissal, though a substantial $44 million buyout does soften the chances of such an outcome.

Oklahoma’s 2022 season was a significant setback, particularly on offense, which drastically underperformed preseason expectations. The Sooners struggled, cycling through quarterbacks and even firing first-year offensive coordinator Seth Littrell after just seven games. Interim play-caller Joe Jon Finley couldn’t reverse the trend; the offense averaged a dismal 24 points per game—their lowest since 1998. They were among the FBS leaders in sacks allowed and ranked poorly across most major offensive categories. It wasn’t just a minor stumble; it was a complete collapse.

Well, another similar season this year could very well see Brent Venables’ tenure at Oklahoma end. “If Venables, at mighty Oklahoma, Shane, he wins six games three out of four years, I feel like we have to fire his a-s. Is that too harsh?,” SEC Mike of The SEC Football Podcast bluntly stated. However, Cousin Shane pointed out a significant obstacle: “No. If the money’s there, if you can find the money, then absolutely, brother.” This highlights the reality that Venables’ $44.8 million buyout is a major factor in him getting a fourth year in Norman, with his future heavily reliant on quarterback John Mateer’s performance and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle’s play-calling this season.

It’s important to remember, though, that Brent Venables was instrumental in Oklahoma’s impressive defensive performance last season. They ranked among the top 25 nationally in run defense, total defense, and scoring defense, and ESPN’s SP+ placed them 16th overall. They averaged 2.69 sacks per game, ranked 10th in tackles for loss (7.39 per game), tied for sixth in fumbles recovered (12), and were 10th in red-zone touchdown defense (allowing scores 47.37% of the time). While defensive coordinator Zac Alley, who played a key role in this improvement, has since moved to West Virginia, the foundation is there.

Maintaining this level of consistency is crucial for Brent Venables and his team this season. Perhaps a new center player could contribute to that. However, given their history, consistency isn’t what Oklahoma fans have come to expect. “Because you know Oklahoma—they should be contenders every single year. We shouldn’t be having the conversation as to, ‘I hope they make a bowl game,’ or, ‘We need this one player to change everything.’ This is a team that traditionally has put a lot of talent in the NFL. They’ve won a lot of championships—they’ve won a lot of national championships. That’s what the expectations are there in Norman. They’re kinda struck.” This perspective underscores the high standards in Norman.

Shane added, “But who knows, I think with a little success we might turn this thing around, but if it’s six wins, seven maybe you keep him, but that would be a tough pill to swallow.” And with the buyout decreasing to $34.9 million after the 2025 season, another six-win season likely won’t be enough for Venables. This situation, where a historically successful program now grapples with a challenging reality, creates significant pressure for Brent Venables.

A critical period begins for Brent Venables at Oklahoma

Oklahoma’s SEC debut in 2024 was far from the smooth transition they hoped for; it felt like a trial by fire. Their schedule was brutal, featuring matchups against LSU in Baton Rouge, Ole Miss on the road, and tough home games against Tennessee, Alabama, and Missouri. The SEC seemingly threw them into the deep end, leaving them bruised—except for their surprising victory against Alabama. And we all know the subsequent fate of Oklahoma that season. To further compound their woes, Navy defeated them in their bowl game, completely derailing the season’s momentum.

SEC Mike didn’t hesitate to deliver a stark reality check to Brent Venables: “The one that’s really got a beef is Oklahoma.” Billy Liucci added to this sentiment, stating, “They got completely scr–ed with the scheduling… Oklahoma’s the one getting treated like little brother in this deal when they come in. And Oklahoma is a football—you know, they’re a proven traditional power, a blueblood program… And for that to be that big a disparity—not just for one year but two—I think that’s a crime… And I think they should have been a lot more, you know, a lot more tied in to like what the discrepancy and disparity were going to be between those two schedules. And they should have been more focused on not making it that different… Again, it’s a big difference in how you come into this conference, because you can get stepped on and buried really quickly.”

By the numbers, Oklahoma was already statistically behind some of their peers, and their challenging 2024 schedule only amplified these issues. Ironically, they found themselves in the top 3, not for their offensive or defensive prowess, but for the sheer difficulty of their schedule. Their SEC record stood at a disappointing 2–6, and their overall record was 6–7. The lone bright spot was a surprising 24–3 victory against Alabama, but even that couldn’t salvage the season, especially after the bowl game loss to Navy. Unfortunately, the schedule for the upcoming 2025 season offers no respite.

Even national voices have weighed in, with Andy Staples asking, “Oklahoma has the hardest schedule. Can Brent Venables survive this? That’s the question.” When media outlets, analytical models, and rival insiders all converge on the same conclusion, it’s more than just background noise.

Looking ahead, 2025 appears even more daunting. It’s a brutal gauntlet: Michigan, LSU, and Auburn are all set to visit Norman, in addition to road trips to Tennessee, Alabama, and South Carolina. Sandwiched in between is the annual rivalry game against Texas in Dallas, creating a relentless stretch of challenging matchups. Following the Texas game, their schedule reads like a murderer’s row: South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU—with no easy wins in sight. Las Vegas oddsmakers aren’t optimistic about their prospects, and their projected win total and strength of schedule paint a grim picture. With a new offensive coordinator, offensive line, and quarterback, Brent Venables finds himself squarely on the hot seat, facing immense pressure to deliver results.