Dan Lanning has built Oregon into one of the hottest brands in college football. Recruiting wins, a Big Ten title, and a wave of blue-chip talent have fueled serious hype around the Ducks. But behind the scenes, a few cracks are showing—and they’re starting to raise questions.

On the surface, Oregon’s future looks bright. Earlier this week, the Ducks secured their biggest recruit of the 2026 class, pushing them past Alabama in the rankings. That’s no small feat. The offensive line remains elite, having been a Joe Moore Award finalist for two straight years. Everything screams “contender.” But the truth is, all that buzz doesn’t automatically translate to playoff success. And analysts like Josh Pate are starting to pump the brakes.

In a segment aired on June 13th on McElroy & Cubelic in the Morning, Josh Pate offered a sobering perspective. “If someone ignorant to college football walked in, they would think that the blind benefit of the doubt should come with results.” That benefit, Pate argues, has its limits. “What it really comes with in college football is talent acquisition.”

Pate adds, “So if you’re recruiting at a top-five level—even if you haven’t won a national title—people just blindly believe in you. The odds market blindly kind of bakes that equity into your preseason standing and ranking and whatnot.” That blind belief, he explains, often inflates expectations. People assume big-time recruiting equals big-time winning. But that formula doesn’t always deliver.

Pate continues, “With Oregon, yeah, if you’re going by talent acquisition, I mean you could talk about the tackles they lost quarterback situation, but then on the flip side, you can talk about Dante Moore. I mean, Dante Moore was so good in their bowl prep last year but that that five-star kid they signed asked them to release him, and it wasn’t because he got up to Eugene and didn’t like the weather—it was because he got up there, saw Dante Moore in practice, and said, ‘Yeah, I’m not beating him out.’” That’s the kind of detail that exposes the fine print behind all the headlines.

Studies show that recruiting success explains up to 36% of team performance variance in metrics like the Sagarin ratings. Generally, teams with top-10 classes win like top-10 teams. But there are exceptions—Texas A&M’s loaded 2022 class flopped. It’s not just about getting stars; it’s about making them work together.

That’s where Oregon finds itself. Dillon Gabriel, Jordan James, Tez Johnson, Josh Conerly Jr., Ajani Cornelius—gone. Many are NFL-bound or transferred. ESPN’s Bill Connelly even pegged Oregon as one of the eight most likely to regress in 2025. Their No. 109 ranking in returning production backs that up.

Yes, Lanning crushed the transfer portal, landing the No. 4-ranked class with names like Isaiah World, Emmanuel Pregnon, and others. But at quarterback, all eyes are on Dante Moore. The five-star flashed elite upside in bowl prep. Still, he’s untested in meaningful snaps. And the one who was supposed to compete with Moore?

Dan Lanning’s offseason nightmare

The Ducks got hit with a double whammy that could shake the core of their future. Let’s start with offensive coordinator Will Stein. Under his guidance, Oregon’s offense has exploded—and that has made him a hot name for head coaching gigs. Spencer McLaughlin, on the June 12 episode of Locked On Ducks, put it bluntly: “Will Stein will leave after this year, and Novosad will follow him.”

Austin Novosad, a redshirt sophomore, is not just a backup. According to McLaughlin, “I am really impressed and really high on Novosad, and who recruited him is Will Stein.” He added, “Novosad looks like he has all the tools to be able to do that. I mean in the spring games, man, he has got some elite high-level ball placement. I mean he and Dante Moore just haven’t been that different in the two spring games.” That’s the scary part—if Stein leaves, Novosad might pack his bags too.

Where would Stein go? One place to watch: Stanford. With Andrew Luck now helping revive that program through recruiting, the job is starting to look more attractive than people realize.

“Stanford, by the way, has more recruiting power than you’d think,” McLaughlin explains. “They currently have a top 25 class; they’ve pulled top 25 high school classes in the past, and they’re using the transfer portal now that Andrew Luck is there.”

A rising program. Academic prestige. A West Coast location. And with Stein’s ties in California and Texas, he checks a lot of boxes for Stanford. “You know, an offensive coordinator at Oregon out on the West Coast has plenty of ties up and down in the state of California and beyond. That could make plenty of sense if you’re the Cardinal and you wanted to hire a young up-and-coming coach like Stein,” McLaughlin adds.

It’s not far-fetched. Lanning’s built a powerhouse. But now, he’s got to keep it from unraveling. If Stein leaves, Oregon loses its offensive identity. If Novosad leaves, the QB room gets thinner. And with so many veterans gone from last year’s squad, there’s already enough pressure on Dante Moore’s shoulders as is.