For a team that lost only one game all season, Oregon is facing an unexpected opponent in the first round of the playoffs: empty seats. Many fans expect a blowout in a game featuring a Big Ten team at home against a Group of 5 (G5) opponent, which is why ticket sales have taken a significant hit.

With just 6 hours left for the kickoff, sideline tickets for the Oregon-JMU game saw their retail prices drop from $219 to $85.

Despite all the early chatter, more than 54,000 fans are expected to pack Autzen Stadium for the game. When tickets first went on sale through Ticketmaster on December 9, 2024, prices were steep. The cheapest seats started at $167, while some tickets climbed as high as $349. However, as game day drew closer, prices on the secondary market dropped rapidly.

By December 19, just a day before kickoff, some tickets were going for under $70. SeatGeek listed get-in prices at $65, while Vivid Seats listed them at $68. Still, the dip raised major doubts. Autzen Stadium thrives on its loud atmosphere, so the slower demand for a home playoff game made it seem like the hype was not there. The CFP committee, not Oregon, set the initial ticket prices, which played a crucial role in that drop-off. The situation is pushing many fans to either wait it out or just watch from home.

And then the matchup did the rest of the damage. Facing a Group of Five opponent like James Madison, a 21-point underdog, didn’t exactly scream must-see game for everyone. Add in late-December timing in Oregon. The holiday expenses and a full slate of playoff games on TV fuel a lot of expenses. It’s easy to see why some fans passed on making the trip for what many expected to be a one-sided game. That kind of drop-off doesn’t happen in a game with huge stakes, like the Big Ten Championship between Indiana and Ohio State.

In that matchup, ticket prices shot up fast for various reasons. The winner was set to claim the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. So the stakes instantly make it one of the biggest games of the season. Add in two massive fan bases and a neutral-site game in Indianapolis. It was an easy trip for Ohio State fans, so the attendance was never in doubt. It was also Indiana’s first Big Ten Championship appearance since 1967, with the Hoosiers entering undefeated and ranked No. 2, which only fueled the buzz even more.

Why does Oregon have the edge? 

Oddsmakers and projection models see Oregon as a clear favorite against James Madison. Oddsmakers list the Ducks as 21-point home favorites with a money line around -2000, while JMU sits at +1000, showing just how strongly the market expects Dan Lanning’s team to advance. Oregon’s edge begins with high-end personnel and balance on both sides of the ball. Defensively, Oregon ranked third in the Big Ten in scoring defense at 14.8 points per game.

It is paired with an explosive offense with a unit that consistently limits damage and controls game flow. That combination explains the Ducks’ 11–1 record and an 8–4 mark against the spread. James Madison brings a dangerous rushing identity but faces a steep climb against that profile in Autzen Stadium. The Dukes led the Sun Belt with 245.7 rushing yards per game. Their ground game gives them a path to shorten the contest and potentially hang within the number.

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However, the model leans toward Oregon not only as the outright winner but also projects the total to go over 45.5 points, with one side of the spread hitting nearly 60% of the time. In essence, Oregon’s combination of NFL-caliber quarterback play, top-tier defense, and home-field advantage gives the Ducks an edge.