Just one month into the 2025 college football season, and things are beginning to shake up. The spotlight is once again on the quarterbacks. Yes, special teams, running backs, and defenses can definitely turn around the games, but let’s face it: In today’s game, your options are pretty limited if your quarterback isn’t playing consistently. For this reason, ESPN’s numbers expert Bill Connelly dug into the data and ranked all the 68 Power Four signal-callers through Week 5.

The QB ranking was a true reality check for Arch Manning. Manning entered 2025 with Heisman buzz surrounding his name and Texas ranked No.1  in the preseason rankings, but five weeks later, Connelly has him at No. 41 in his Power Four quarterback rankings. The worst part is that he is ranked lower than two true freshmen, No. 39 Bear Bachmeier of BYU and No. 38 Bryce Underwood of Michigan, as well as No. 40 Kaidon Salter of Colorado, who actually lost his starting position and was benched earlier in the season. Most people didn’t expect Peyton and Eli’s nephew to drop his performance like that in a month.

Connelly also didn’t sugarcoat things.  He wrote, “It almost looks like paralysis by analysis for Manning,” pointing out that Arch is completing only 61.3% of his throws, ranking 100th in interception rate, and holding the ball for an average of 3.1 seconds, which is seventh longest in the nation. With that three-pick stretch to start the year, it’s easy to see why he’s fallen down the rankings. Underwood and Bachmeier, who are still in their teens and are still learning the position, are only expected to oversee games and prevent catastrophes. They have performed well enough to surpass Manning in the rankings.

And for Texas fans, that’s the part that hurts. Arch still exhibits the arm strength, mobility, and family history, so this isn’t about inherent talent. But things aren’t great when you’re behind players who have just finished prom season and even a transfer who had to fight for his position. “I want to see consistency as far as technique … sometimes his feet get square and parallel, the ball goes down in the dirt,” Louis Riddick stated this week. Arch still has the opportunity to prove everyone wrong, beginning with Florida this weekend, but right now? It’s obvious from the ESPN figures that the hype hasn’t kept up with the results, and the Manning name isn’t doing him any favors.

Top to bottom: From Jayden Maiava’s surge to Kentucky’s struggles

It appears that USC’s Jayden Maiava is the real deal at the top of the list. With a Total QBR of 93.4, Connelly had him comfortably seated at the top, and the numbers, to be honest, back that up. He is efficient and explosive because he is the only player to rank in the top 20 in both completion rate (70.5%) and yards per completion (16.2). He still dropped 364 yards and an 85.5 QBR against Illinois, even in his “worst” game. Is that even a bad day? The majority of programs would kill for that. No. 2 is Diego Pavia of Vanderbilt, who is playing with merciless efficiency, and is right behind him. Connelly highlighted how he has cut down the negative plays and his 75% completion rate.

Trinidad Chambliss, who is ranked at No. 3, only got his chance after Austin Simmons was out, and he may have been a gem discovered by Ole Miss. Connelly essentially claimed that the young player Wally Pipp’d his way into the position by bringing a legit run threat and producing more explosive plays with fewer slips.

No. 4 is Fernando Mendoza of Indiana, who is also quietly leading the country in success rates, which is crazy for a program like the Hoosiers. Dante Moore of Oregon completes the top five after a composed performance in his first major road test against Penn State. Connelly even suggested that if Moore continues to play this way, he might end up in the Heisman race.

Now, if you go all the way to the bottom of the rankings, Kentucky fans may want to turn away. Zach Calzada and Cutter Boley are ranked 68th out of 68.  Apart from one good game against Eastern Michigan, Connelly noted, the pair has combined for three touchdowns, two picks, and nine sacks. That’s as depressing as it gets.

Even UNC’s Gio Lopez, who has a QBR of 16.3, came in higher. The “big names” in the middle, such as Drew Allar of Penn State and Garrett Nussmeier of LSU, are struggling because they simply aren’t living up to the hype; injuries, bad choices, and unfortunate timing have not helped them. Then there’s Cade Klubnik of Clemson at No. 54, who had a 78.7 QBR the previous season. For him, Connelly simply described September as “utterly disastrous.” With breakouts at the top and big names falling behind, Connelly’s list shows the QB race is as unpredictable as ever a month in.