Last time’s 29-21 was so good, they’ll be wanting to do it again. It shouldn’t take long for the Iowa State Cyclones to reveal the direction their season will take. “Usually you’re going against a team to get the rust off,” starter quarterback Rocco Becht said. “K-State, you’ve got to be ready, prepared. And you have to be really good at the little things, the details, come that game.” Matt Campbell’s team isn’t afraid, but they’re cautious. Because this Kansas State is revamped.

The setting in Dublin only sharpens the intrigue. This isn’t the cushy opener most programs script; it’s a measuring stick. And while Matt Campbell respects Chris Klieman’s ability to change looks and throw curveballs in Week 1, the chessboard is already in motion. The Wildcats, with Matt Wells now directing the offense, have a different flavor but the same backbone. The Cyclones know the first punches will matter. And analysts are already leaning in with their picks. ESPN’s Dan Wetzel didn’t hesitate to tie his prediction to Iowa State’s steady QB Rocco Becht.

“I’m going to go with Iowa State. I just… it’s going to be a really good game. They usually are. I think this series is like 54-50 and one or something. I mean, something very close, whatever the numbers come. Last year’s game was close. I think this could be a big moment for Rocco Becht. And this is his third year as a starter, which is rare.”

Wetzel’s argument was layered not just in numbers but in loyalty. Rocco Becht, who passed for 3,500 yards with 25 touchdowns and just nine interceptions a season ago, is the active FBS leader with a touchdown pass in 18 straight games. He hasn’t flinched in the transfer era. “He’s a terrific player, can run all the different things he can do. And he didn’t leave, right? He hasn’t left either of these years. Same with Avery Johnson at Kansas State. Like they have options to go somewhere and they’re staying. They’ll, you know, people are getting big money to go wherever you got to go. And I’m not saying they aren’t getting some money to stay, but there’s a loyalty factor. And so I think this could be a really good season for Rocco. And I’m going to give Iowa State the edge in this early one.”

That loyalty forms the backbone of Campbell’s rebuild. In a sport where quarterbacks are constantly shuffling zip codes, Becht has anchored ISU through their best two-year stretch in program history, piling up 18 wins. He has already shown the poise of a veteran, delivering under pressure in Ames last fall when Iowa State beat Kansas State 29-21 on a last-second kick. But Matt Campbell was quick to point out the Week 1 trap. “I don’t know what in a first game, you never know what a team is going to do,” Wetzel said. “And Klieman’s the kind of coach that will change things up.” That’s where the Wildcats’ offensive makeover under Wells becomes the lurking storyline.

K-State isn’t just tinkering—they’re rebranding. With Wells steering the attack and Johnson taking over as the full-time starter, the Wildcats are expected to run a more balanced scheme, less ground-and-pound, more disguise. Their offensive line remains a weapon, but the playbook has sharper edges. Receivers will be tested, but Campbell’s bigger concern sits on his own sideline. With Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel off to the NFL, Becht’s new targets need to grow up fast.

Rocco Becht has shown the knack for making the ordinary drive feel inevitable. His chemistry with the next wave of Cyclone wideouts will be tested early. There won’t be any margin for error against Klieman’s bunch, especially with Rece Davis picking Kansas State “just to keep it interesting.” In truth, this isn’t a mismatch at all.

To slow down Avery, Matt Campbell’s D-Line has to bring the heat

For all the talk about Rocco Becht’s steady rise and Iowa State’s offensive outlook, the real X-factor in Dublin might just be what happens in the trenches. The Cyclones aren’t just facing a KState team with flash and playmakers — they’re staring down phenom quarterback Avery Johnson, a guy who can wreck a game plan in a blink. And if there’s one thing Matt Campbell’s squad knows, it’s that slowing him down starts with their defensive line showing teeth.

That’s where the concern comes in. The Cyclones slipped to ninth in the Big 12 in total defense last year, a far cry from the top-three ranking they held in six of the previous seven seasons. Most glaring? They managed just 16 sacks, the fewest in Campbell’s tenure. For a defense that built its identity on disruption, that number is more red flag than stat line.

The good news? Reinforcements are in place. Domonique Orange, a part-time starter the last two seasons, enters as a preseason All-Big 12 first-team pick, the anchor up front. Then there’s fifth-year edge Tamatoa McDonough, fresh off a run at Yale where he logged a sack in five straight games and finished with 6.5 in 10 contests. Add in Vontroy Malone, who tallied 8.5 tackles for loss in 28 games at Tulsa, and suddenly the Cyclones have options.