Well, this season isn’t just about making noise—it’s do-or-die for Joey McGuire’s Texas Tech team. The Red Raiders boast 18 commits and 21 transfers, a stacked roster. But talent alone won’t win games if timings don’t click. And for Texas Tech, it’s the timing that’s making things worse for them. They haven’t reached double-digit wins since 2008, and in ten years of the College Football Playoff, they’ve never cracked the top 25 or sniffed the bracket. Last year’s 8-5 record barely moved the needle. Now, if they fall short, it won’t just sting; it will cast a long shadow over the program.

Joey McGuire’s team is not just looking for a strong foot but for their first-ever Big 12 championship this season. Look, last season might have ended with an eight-win record, but it was their best since 2009. Now? With an estimated $40 million roster investment, they are right in the contention. They even have veteran players like QB Behren Morton, offensive weapons like Micah Hudson and Quinten Joyner, and significant defensive talent like Romello Height and David Bailey.

So, if even after such a high-end investment and a strong veteran team, Joey McGuire’s team is also not in the playoffs this season, then it’s surely a major bust.

And Locked on Texas Tech’s Chris Level didn’t mince words before landing them with a tough reality check. “I just feel like this is a failure and a major bust if you’re not in Arlington. Some would go even further and say, man, you’ve got to win in Arlington, and at that point, then that’s when the CFP is absolutely in play. And maybe there are some slim circumstances where even if you make it to Arlington and don’t win it, you still would get to go,” Level said. See, the expectation is not a title win but a title run. With Baylor, TCU, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Texas all making the playoffs, Texas Tech’s absence is not just a disappointment but a major flaw.

“But I just don’t think you can count on that right now. But getting to Arlington is—because again, you’ve never been. We’ve documented this. You’ve never been a part of that. You are one of very few schools, of the old schools, that have never taken part in that game,” Chris Level added. If Joey McGuire punches his ticket to the CFP at Arlington Stadium, it would mark not just a milestone, but the beginning of a new era of Texas Tech football dominance in Lubbock. With a 23-16 record, he’s already established a strong foundation, leading Texas Tech to bowl games in each of his first three seasons—a feat previously accomplished only by the legendary Mike Leach.

All this adds up to a clear goal: CFP. And it’s not like Joey McGuire doesn’t know the pressure building on him. After finishing off as one of the worst defensive units in CFB last season, giving up 460.2 yards per game, he brought in DC Shiel Wood to the team. With that, even McGuire made his aim crystal clear and said, “It’s time to win. Is there more pressure this year? 100%. But I’d rather be in this situation. I’d rather be in the situation I’m in than be the guy who is like, ‘Man, we have to have a lot of stuff go our way.’”

But there’s a major roadblock in Joey McGuire’s playoff expectations.

Joey McGuire’s Texas Tech gets a tough schedule warning

Texas Tech football has a golden opportunity this fall. Their home schedule—featuring Kent State, Oregon State, Kansas, Oklahoma State, BYU, and UCF—sets them up for a strong start. A veteran team, improved depth, and a formidable offensive line should propel them beyond expectations. While road games against Utah, Houston, Arizona State, and Kansas State will be challenging, they offer valuable measuring sticks.

Building on last year’s 8-5 overall and 6-3 Big 12 record, Texas Tech aims to prove that they are no longer a middling team. However, those road matchups against Utah, Arizona State, and Kansas State could present significant hurdles.

Even Chris Level highlighted the same and said, “My point of bringing Utah up is—you are going to have games on the road against three other programs that I’ve seen picked to win this league. I don’t know if I would term that easy or [if] it sets up great. I mean, Utah, Arizona State, and Kansas State, by some form or fashion, have all either been picked to win it or are clearly in that top tier of expected finishes as it relates to this league. And those are three road games.” The back-to-back games, then BYU coming in for a home game, might make things hard for them.

Texas Tech faces a tough home schedule, but their away games are even tougher. Lubbock offers opportunities for wins, but their true mettle will be tested in Salt Lake City, Tempe, and Manhattan. Consistently performing on the road will be crucial for a successful season.