The college football offseason buzz is starting to fade. With spring wrapping up, fans are shifting their attention to what really matters—the kickoff of the regular season! Players and coaches have had some time to regroup and sort out their spots on the roster after last season’s craziness. Now they’re all set for the next round, but many of them still have a chip on their shoulders. This is especially true for head coaches who are trying to hold onto their big contracts after a couple of rough years. So, who’s on the hot seat this season? Let’s hear from Josh Pate.

Even without the hot seat, the end of 2024 saw some changes on the sidelines for a few programs. For instance, Bill Belichick is now coaching the Tar Heels. Dan Mullen didn’t have a long run in broadcasting, as he accepted a head coaching gig at UNLV. For the discourse nerds, the return of Rich Rodriguez to West Virginia is a blessing. Life is relatively easier for first-year head coaches as they don’t carry the baggage of expectations. The same can’t be said about the coaches who are in their third or fourth years. Who’s the first name on Pate’s list?

“I mean, Hugh Freeze came in, and he just did not have a lot to work with, and they went six and seven the first year, and those people didn’t freak out. They went five and seven last year, and they mildly freaked out, but even now, they’re totally willing to back him,” Josh Pate gave an account of fans’ existing patience parameter till now. But it will eventually fade out. They will pass on Freeze if he can’t douse down the hot seat talks.

The Auburn head coach knows that pretty well. He fortified his empire with one of the best recruiting classes in the country. Their roster looks pretty jacked up with a handful of promising faces, including a new starting quarterback in Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma and Eric Singleton Jr. from Georgia Tech. “They’re totally aware that the talent profile is there. They’ve done a good job bringing players in both recruiting and through the portal last year,” Pate fueled the shimmering hope with a pinch of salt. “If you did nothing more than flip their turnover fortune, they had a good offense statistically.”

“If you flip the turnover luck, I mean, there’s a shot they win eight or nine games this year. I say eight or nine, not that that’s the maximum they’re capable of. I think that’s the range they need to be. Anything less than that, and I think you could be in trouble,” Pate added. So, that’s the scenario. Hugh Freeze can’t give another five-win season. Even the head coach was adamant in setting the season target to at least six wins, implying a bowl appearance.

The next head coach that could be in trouble comes from Florida State. “Mike Norvell, I still can’t believe that this is a real thing. Mike won the ACC during an undefeated regular season two years ago, and we are now talking about him in do-or-die territory,” Pate breathed a sigh. Norvell showcased a brilliant debut season, entering the class of elite with a 10-3 season in 2022, followed by an undefeated 13-0 season in 2023. But suddenly, he blinked, and boom! It’s a 2-10 season. Forget bowl appearance, the Noles are downright embarrassing in some games.

“It’s almost mathematically impossible, so new coordinators this year, there’s a reset vibe. We were down there recently. I say this with no smile on my face, cuz like I really like Mike Norvell. I think that they believe in the moves they’ve made,” Pate said. The program that’s thriving on the idea of competing in the ACC every year, falling to be non-bowl eligible, is hard to comprehend.

So, naturally, there were changes. Norvell roped in Gus Malzahn as his offensive coordinator, while Tony White will be calling the defense. And there’s a new quarterback in Tommy Castellanos, who has previously played in a Malzahn-led offense. “I can’t blindly believe in it, but they do have the vibe. They do have the energy around the building that you know they’ve pressed all the right buttons, and I don’t know, maybe they have. They did two years ago, so maybe they have again,” Pate said.

There is more to his list.

Josh Pate put college football coaches on notice 

The third name on Josh Pate’s list is Luke Fickell, who came from one of the worst seasons in decades at Wisconsin. “The last time Wisconsin had a worse two-year stretch was 94 and 95, a long time ago. 7-6 to 5-7, they had bad portal luck last year. Van Dyke got hurt. I think that was one of the first couple of games of the year. Recruiting and the portal have improved a little bit.”

In late November last year, the Badgers were up against the Cornhuskers with a 5-6 record. One win and they would have made the bowl game. The Huskers also needed the win to make it to the postseason. However, when it mattered, Fickell’s defense conceded 44 points to a Dylan Raiola-led offense that had struggled all season. The result? A 25-44 loss.

“So they’re getting better players like they’re not void of talent. It’s just what’s the identity of Wisconsin, and consequently, when’s the last time you asked that, even in the down years?” But Josh Pate smelled a problem elsewhere. Wisconsin has quite a grueling schedule in 2025. Pate believes they have the toughest among the Big 10 and can hardly win four to five if all goes right. The Badgers are scheduled to play Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, and Washington. Even though some of these games are at home, they are not expected to go as favorites.

Last but not least, no one’s seat is hotter than Brent Venables at Oklahoma. Through his three years in Norman, he flaunts a record of 22-24. They have splashed out some signature victories over No. 3 Texas in 2023 and No. 7 Alabama in 2024. But that turned out to be a big nothing in the long run.

After losing Arnold in the portal, Venables turned to John Mateer, which is a plus, as per Josh Pate. But it comes with a subsequent risk of burning him out. “I believe in the quarterback move. I believe in the coordinator’s move. I believe in the defense just continuing to be what they’ve been. But dude. You think about the pressure on a college football quarterback, John Mateer. Coming in there and thinking about the pressure, man, there are millions of Oklahoma fans, there are dozens of people in that building on staff,” Pate shed light on the overreliance on the QB and deemed it as a potential flaw.

“You’ve got a roster full of players, and yet every one of their potential or expectation levels depends on whether you perform or not.” But no matter what, it’s a do-or-die for Brent Venables in his year 4.