The college football season is almost here, and the excitement is building fast. With rosters getting final touches and brutal schedules ahead, the race for the playoffs looks tighter than ever. Last season gave us plenty of surprises—remember Vandy dropping 40 points on Alabama? Or SMU and Indiana sneaking into the mix while Bama and Ole Miss watched from the sidelines? Now, as players sweat it out in summer camp, analysts are throwing their early picks into the fire. And Josh Pate just added some unexpected fuel by naming his surprise wild card from SEC.

So what exactly is a wild card? Simple. It’s a team that looks good enough to win the conference or even make a playoff push—but one that could also just as easily fall apart midseason. It’s all about high upside and high risk. So when a viewer asked on The College Football Show, “On your last show you said 12 teams have a shot in the SEC. Who are the biggest wild cards that could actually win the conference?”—Pate set his parameters right away.

“I’m not going to pick teams from the Top 5, because that defeats the purpose of being a wild card,” Pate said. “So Texas NO, Georgia NO, Alabama NO, LSU NO, Ole Miss even, let’s take those teams, remove them from the equation.” Then who fits the mold?

Pate added, “I think Oklahoma is the first team that comes to mind because they’re all the way down there at +2500 odds, and I legitimately think Oklahoma has the team profile to compete for the SEC championship.”

Last season was a strange one for Brent Venables‘ Sooners. The defense stepped up big, finishing in the top 25 nationally. But the offense was a disaster. Oklahoma ranked 124th in yards per play with just 4.8. That’s rough. A big part of the problem came from injuries, especially among wide receivers. But even beyond that, the quarterback play was shaky, the run game was weak, and the offensive line was constantly banged up. And that schedule….

Brutal. This season isn’t much easier either. “You know, the tough schedule is baked in here. It has to be baked into the way you talk about them,” Pate said. “It’s baked into their over/under win total, which is six and a half. They face, from the perspective of odds to win the national championship, the number 1, 6, 9, 10, 13, 17, 18, and 26 teams in the odds to win it all.”

This year, Oklahoma hosts Auburn, Ole Miss, Missouri, and LSU. That’s already tough. But they also travel to face South Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama. And let’s not forget the Red River game against Texas. Last season’s 2-6 record against those teams tells you what they’re up against. But this time, a win over Michigan in non-conference play could change the season’s tone completely. This team has a 10-win potential on a 6-win schedule, meaning winning their non-conference games is a must to gain a playoff advantage.

Knowing he had to act fast, Brent Venables went all-in this offseason. He added quarterback John Mateer from Washington State and brought in Mateer’s OC, Ben Arbuckle—a brilliant move. He also added Cal star running back Jadyn Ott. That, combined with returning players and more experience, gives Oklahoma a much stronger roster this year.

Last season, Jackson Arnold struggled. His completion rate was just 62.6%, and he was benched after some early picks. Mateer, on the other hand, comes in with a 64.6% completion rate and a stronger resume.

“But if the quarterback position is B+ or better for them this year, I trust them at the skill spots, I trust them at running back, I tentatively trust that the offensive line will be better, and I trust the defense,” Pate said. “Oklahoma’s a wild card team there because if a lot of that stuff turns from question mark to plus, they’ve got a really good talent roster. They could win the league.” But can John Mateer really take Oklahoma to the next level?

Confidence is building around Brent Venables’ new QB

This offseason, John Mateer went from being overlooked to becoming the one everyone’s talking about. After bouncing from Central Arkansas to Washington State, he didn’t have much buzz early on. But this spring, the Oklahoma Sooners made a move that’s starting to pay off.

Paul Finebaum even said, “I love what I’m seeing,” while analyst J.D. PicKell echoed that feeling. From the jump in spring camp, Mateer earned respect. Coaches praised his command of the offense and his leadership in the locker room. Analysts encouraged him to stay steady with his mechanics. ESPN and On3 ranked him as one of the SEC’s most exciting quarterbacks heading into the season.

“There’s a lot of names in Oklahoma history that have played quarterback at a high level,” said PicKell. “But I also think that this is the most reliable hype of any first year starting quarterback at Oklahoma of any of those guys.” And the hype isn’t empty.

Mateer’s numbers at Washington State were eye-popping: 3,139 passing yards, 826 rushing yards, and 44 total touchdowns. More impressively, Mateer and Arbuckle helped Washington State’s offense rank 6th in scoring and 17th in total offense across all FBS teams. That duo now brings their chemistry to Norman.

Brent Venables has completely retooled the offense with dynamic receivers, a dangerous run game, and now a trusted quarterback-coordinator pairing. If things click, the Sooners could turn heads. If not, the heat under Venables’ seat could rise fast. Whether they crash or conquer, they’re built to shake things up. Just the way a true wild card should.