The SEC and ABC just dropped their flashy promos for the SEC Championship Game. It’s almost like they’re whispering a reminder that before the Playoff drama begins, there’s still one more showdown that decides who runs the South. But after last year’s chaos, where every conference champ got booted in Round 1 of the CFP and Ohio State lifted the trophy without even playing on Championship Saturday, fans are starting to wonder. Does anyone really want to play in it? And yet, Alabama seems ready to punch its ticket.

In an X post on November 9, Alabama beat writer Nick Kelly dropped an interesting calculation. “Even if Alabama loses to Oklahoma, and Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Georgia win the rest of their conference games, Alabama will still make the SEC Championship Game, per @mred53’s SEC FB standings tiebreaker calculator.”

A follow-up post went even further. If Alabama beats Oklahoma but loses to Auburn, the Tide still remain locked in for the SEC Championship Game. But not so fast!

Nick Kelly later doubled back, admitting he might’ve jumped the gun. “Well, I may have tweeted too soon,” he added. “The more results I test through the calculator, the more it’s clear things are not a lock because of common opponents.” Still, his overall point held weight. If Alabama takes care of Oklahoma, it’s very likely the Tide are heading to the conference title game. That’s music to Kalen DeBoer’s ears. In his second year in Tuscaloosa, he has his team positioned to prove the Tide is still a force to be reckoned with. 

The CFP’s new format means conference champions no longer automatically receive the top-four seeds. However, making it to Atlanta still signifies an elite season. Win or lose, you’re nearly locked into the playoff conversation. For Alabama, it’s proof that the DeBoer era hasn’t lost Nick Saban’s championship DNA.

But the math isn’t done yet. As of November 9, Alabama and Texas A&M are both undefeated in SEC play at 6-0, and they don’t even face each other. A&M has South Carolina and Texas left, while Bama draws Oklahoma and Auburn, two defenses ranked in the top 10 nationally in stopping the run. If either team slips, though, Georgia (6-1), Ole Miss (5-1), and the Longhorns (4-1) are lurking. That’s where the story takes a U-turn. Alabama’s playoff math looks golden, but the football math is the problem.

Kalen DeBoer needs to fix the running dilemma

Kalen DeBoer’s Week 11 win over LSU should’ve been a celebration. Instead, it was a quiet 20-9 slog that exposed a glaring flaw. The Tide rushed for just 56 yards, their lowest mark all season. That’s a red flag. Analyst David Pollack didn’t sugarcoat it either. On his November 8 podcast, he went straight for the jugular.

“Alabama can’t run the football, and it’s got to get fixed,” he said. “They’re too good at wide receiver. They’re too good at quarterback. Like they’ve got, and they’re too good up front athletically and bug and strong guys not to be able to move people.” He’s right. A program built on trench dominance now ranks 114th nationally in rushing yards per game (118.9). 

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Part of the issue is injuries. RB Jamarion Miller hasn’t been himself. A preseason collarbone injury sidelined him early, then a concussion kept him out again against Missouri. He’s back technically, but nowhere near full throttle. Against LSU, he totaled just 13 yards on eight carries. That’s not the Jam Miller, Alabama, expected. That left Ty Simpson hanging in third-and-long territory all night, forced to air it out behind a shaky run block. At one point, the Tide went three straight plays on the ground and still failed to move the chains against an LSU defense without a permanent head coach.

Now the schedule tightens. Next up is Brent Venables and an Oklahoma defense that thrives on chaos and gang tackles. The Tide’s playoff math may favor them, but football, as Kalen DeBoer knows, doesn’t care about calculators. It only respects execution because against the Sooners, Alabama’s margin for error will shrink faster than their rushing lanes.