“I would have fired him last year if I didn’t have to eat an $80 million buyout,” Paul Finebaum‘s blunt take on Lincoln Riley gives a biting glimpse of how tight a rope the Trojans head coach is treading on. Well, the buyout? It has climbed up to a whopping $90 million, the largest in college football history. You could sense the intense pressure on Lincoln’s shoulders. The difference in Riley’s celebrated achievements at Oklahoma and his record at Los Angeles is also what’s fuelling the friction.

USC’s 2024 season wasn’t just disappointing; there was more to it. It wasn’t as if the program struggled poorly. It was a close call. Five of those six losses came in one-possession games—games where USC led in the fourth quarter. And the head coach acknowledges the pain, stressing that, “there’s a process to it and the things that are happening are going to give us the results that every Trojan wants.” Talk about the optimism peaking high, as the Trojans prep for the 2025 season.

In an interview with NBC Sports’ Matt Cassel, Riley talked about how the 2024 season was a success despite the failures, behind the cracks, there stood a solid foundation.”Five of your six losses were one-possession games. You had the lead in the fourth quarter. I know it’s not a good thing, but when you take a step back, is there anything positive you can take away from that knowing that you’re so close?” Matt posed the question.

Maybe after mulling it over a thousand times last season, Riley knew the foundation had been strong, but the wrinkles here and there were what cost them. To Cassel’s question, he was ready with an answer. “Yeah, you have some kind of internal push-pull about when you look back at last season, like the bottom line is like all we’ve ever done is win, and that’s all that we’re used to. So when you don’t no matter how it comes about it does not feel good.” Didn’t he just pretty much sum up the Trojans’ emotional ballpark?

But he continued putting forth the bigger picture, how, yet in those defeats, the Trojans succeeded. Drawing from his experience at Oklahoma and his present position at USC. “But the flip side of it is, and I think this is probably having been in two blue blood programs now, and been a part of a few things. You have a bigger perspective that there’s growth in a climb that’s happening right now. And, yeah, you could go lose five games and those five games and go lose them by 30 points and you’d feel one way.”

The takeaway? Despite the heavy losses, they went against the powerhouses, losing by a small margin. “And the reality is, we had a chance to win every single game that we played in. And we played without a doubt one of the toughest schedules in the country. We played the entire Big 10 schedule, LSU, and Notre Dame.” Talking about the optimists, who had faith in him and the Trojans, he continued. “The people that really watched us play, that didn’t just look at the score, the record, the stats, that really watched the games, they would see why there is so much optimism.”

And not just on the field, USC is making long strides off the turf as well. They have locked in at the No.1 2026 recruiting class, and that’s no fluke. They are stacking the deck with elite talents. They even got Rob Ryan and Chad Bowen on board. Not to forget the Bloom Football Performance Centre – a part of $200 million ‘Moonshot’ project, targeted towards upgrading USC Athletics. It’s not about just catching up; it’s about building a powerhouse from the ground up.

But there’s one wrinkle in the scheme of things that might cost Lincoln Riley dearly.

Greg McElroy warns Lincoln Riley about USC’s weak spot

Lincoln Riley seems optimistic going to the upcoming season, but the chatter about him getting fired if he doesn’t deliver gets louder. Riley’s combined record, since he took over, is 26-14, which would be decent, but not enough for the Trojan Nation. For a program that has raked in 11 national championships, the fandom is hungry for more and maybe losing its patience.

Last season proved quite challenging. With close margins, the Trojan Nation held its breath only to lose it all in the fourth quarter. Well, the offence fell through and their star QB was benched, but the D-line salvaged it all, concluding in a 7-6 record. And Riley knows it. “We’re not content with any part of this program being average or even being good. That’s not our mentality.”

But analyst Greg McElroy has pointed out one weak spot in Riley’s playbook that could cost him dearly. No doubt, D’Anton Lynn held the defense throughout the season, but going forward, would that be enough? “Last year was amazing [with] what D’Anton Lynn did in year number one; To allow far fewer explosive plays, to be a much better tackling unit, to be far more sound defensively—all those things were amazing. But now you got to replace eight starters off last year’s team.” The Trojans got a lot of new faces on their roster. Keeshawn Silver and Jamaal Jarrett, among others.  Can Riley put them all together for an explosive season?

One anonymous Big 10 coach told Athlon Sports, implying that if Riley’s D-line gets solid, they might be on their path to reach their former glory. “Watch the defense. If they take that next step, we’re talking about a team that can go in and play with the best programs in the nation again.” Lynn has also expressed concern regarding the defense. “We have a lot of inexperience in that room; So we have depth as far as bodies. But we don’t have a lot of guys who have played,” he told USC reporter Keely Eure. But then he is also optimistic for this lot, owing to improved spring drills. Let’s see how Lincoln Riley fares in the upcoming weeks. The Trojans will kick off their season against Missouri State on August 30.