Now, what’s the yardstick to measure a head coach’s success? A ticket to the college football playoffs. Normally, the first two years are considered a dead period for the head coaches to prove themselves. For the Illinois Fighting Illini head coach, Bret Bielema, the final bell has rung since he took the head coaching seat in the 2021 season. But can Bielema be blamed? After all, since the inception of the playoffs in 2014, Illinois has not yet punched the playoff ticket. Forget making it to the playoffs, wrapping up a back-to-back eight-plus-win season has now become history. Now, in case Bielema is thinking of writing a success story in 2025, here comes a verdict from a college football analyst.

Illinois football experienced a big glow-up under Bielema. From being at the bottom of the Big Ten to rising to the cusp of contention, they have come a long way. Coming off a 10-win season capped by a signature victory in the Citrus Bowl, the Fighting Illini appear poised for a 2025 season that could be even bigger than the last. After all, they achieved a historic turnaround of wrapping the 2024 season with a 10-3 overall record from a devastating 5-7 record in 2023. As they have their eyes on the bull’s eye, the CFP, they are seen as the “dark horse.”  

On the June 5 episode of the Cover 3 Podcast, host Bud Elliott had Illinois insider Jeremy Werner to preview their upcoming season. He drew a comparison between Bielema’s squad and Curt Cignetti’s Indiana. “Everyone will tell you around Illinois, they’re shooting for [the] college football playoff. They think they’re capable of that. I know a lot of people are saying they could be this year’s Indiana. All respect to Indiana, that is not easy to win 11 games in the Big 10, no matter what your schedule is, right?” Cignetti’s team, too, came with a 3-9 with a new roster. But for Illinois, they already hold an advantage. As the analyst shared, “Illinois is returning most of a roster that won 10 games. So, I know everyone’s looking for kind of that dark horse, and I believe Illinois can be that based on what they return and what they have.”

Running backs Aidan Laughery, Kaden Feagin, and Josh McCray (Citrus Bowl MVP) are coming back. Tight end Tanner Arkin has another year. Other than the returning roster, the schedule is also going to catalyze their CFP run. Avoiding traditional powerhouses Penn State, Oregon, and Michigan on their 2025 schedule, Illinois will likely find its toughest task to come against defending NCAA champions Ohio State in Champaign. As Werner highlighted, “I think this schedule sets up similarly that could be a college game day. Illinois has never had college game day, but if you can get through that Ohio State game with 5 wins or 6 wins, Bud, they have a lot of opportunity. And they should be talked about at that point like a college football playoff contender.”

While the in-state opponent, Western Illinois, shouldn’t pose a very large threat to Bielema’s boys, the Duke Blue Devils are projected to pester them a little. Duke’s head coach, Manny Diaz, has done a fantastic job of turning the program around, and playing against the Blue Devils at home isn’t something to scoff at. On the other hand, Indiana has lost a handful of players to the NFL Draft. Here came a reminder, “If they can get through that Ohio State game and have two off weeks after that with five games remaining, then Illinois really has the chance. But I think that’s why Duke and Indiana, those first two road games, that’s going to tell us a lot about this team,” said Werner. Meanwhile, the 35-year-old drought must be replaying at the back of Bielema’s head.

Bret Bielema carries a 35-year-old burden while being in a battle mode

By now, the Illinois fans have forgotten what back-to-back seasons with eight or more wins taste like. They were lucky to witness it last in 1989 and 1990. However, on that note, the insider sounded an alarm for Bielema and co. “Illinois hasn’t won eight-plus games in back-to-back years since 1990. So, if they do that, that’s a pretty successful season for Illinois in my book. But I get it, they should be excited about this team, and it sets up for an exciting year. The problem is every time Illinois’s kind of gone into an exciting year, they’ve had a backtrack to five wins and not make a bowl game. This team will make a bowl game, I have no doubt about that. But it’s hard to win 10 plus games in the Big 10.”

While the pressure to undo the 35-year-old regret looms large for Bielema, he is in a ‘no-nonsense’ mood right now. Last year, Bielema extended a T-Bar gesture to South Carolina coach Shane Beamer during the Citrus Bowl in a perceived taunt. This time in May, he took his ire out on the SEC. The reason? He sharply criticized the SEC over a 7-page document they released, arguing that they have the toughest conference in college football.

Re-sharing Brett McMurphy of Action Network on X, he added his own words to do the talking. Bret Bielema’s caption read, “Great work. Headed into the weekend maybe have this EXTREMELY talented working group look at running the numbers on: 1- the last 2-3 years where legal NIL and portal transfer rules have balanced rosters like never before, 2- look at head to head in the same time frame, head to head with Power 4. Especially with a possible B1G vs SEC challenge that is being discussed, 3- and there is no better reality than recent history for reality. Maybe the 2025 season, playoffs, and bowl matchups head-to-head. Can’t wait for that press release….” While the jabs fly, Bielema better keep his eyes on the real battle: proving he’s the man in 2025.