Another hot start, another mid-season meltdown, and another set of rankings that sting like a cold slap from the CFP Committee. After an overtime heartbreaker to SMU, Miami’s playoff picture took another hit. Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes (6–2) fell 26-20 in Dallas, their first road game outside Florida, and their second straight loss to an unranked team in three weeks. This time, the drop was harsher than anyone expected.

QB Carson Beck’s costly red-zone interception in OT was the gut punch that sealed their fate. SMU’s KJ Jennings and T.J. Harden capitalized, orchestrating a drive that sent Miami tumbling down the polls. A huge drop from a top-10 contender to the 18th-ranked “what happened” story of November.

In a new episode on Josh Pate’s College Football Show on November 4, he said, “Notre Dame would have to lose a third game to come close to dropping beneath Miami. And this surprised me. I’m not shocked that Notre Dame was above them. I am shocked Miami is that low.” Josh Pate’s theory is that the committee might just be punishing Miami for letting them down.

“The only way I can make sense of this is I really think some committee members looked at Miami and said, ‘Shame on you. We had higher expectations for you in the preseason than we did for a Vandy or a Georgia Tech or a Virginia or whatnot. So, we’re going to bump you down a little bit further because you’re just not playing up to your potential,’” Josh Pate added.

It’s a bold accusation indeed, but it feels eerily plausible. Miami, despite owning the highest strength of record among ACC teams, got bumped out of the Top 15 while less consistent programs leapfrogged them. 

It’s as if the CFP gods are grading on emotion instead of metrics. And the irony is that the Canes’ best win this season came against Notre Dame. Now sitting at No. 18, Miami’s playoff odds hover around 15%, per The Athletic’s model. ESPN’s FPI isn’t much kinder at 14%. Their path is brutal but not impossible. Win out against Syracuse, NC State, Virginia Tech, and No. 24 Pitt, and maybe the narrative flips again. But what makes their plunge sting even more is the Irish’s sudden rise. 

Notre Dame climbs as Mario Cristobal’s Miami slides

Notre Dame, which started the season 0-2, now sits at No. 10, comfortably above the very team that beat them. CFP Committee Chair Mack Rhoades defended the decision with a straight face. “I think it starts with two losses, total of 4 points against two very, very good teams. One of them ranked third in the country and one ranked 18th,” he told Ari Wasserman. Those losses came to No. 3 Texas A&M and No. 18 Miami. But logic says a head-to-head win should matter, right?

Not to Mack Rhoades. “Head-to-head really matters when teams are comparable,” he said. He even went into full analyst mode, praising Marcus Freeman’s defense and calling Notre Dame’s backfield “probably the best backfield in the country.” Of course, it invited brutal takes. Meanwhile, Miami’s resume, which once had them as high as No. 2 in the AP Poll, is being treated like a used ticket stub.

So that’s the thing about Miami. Mario Cristobal and his Canes have to prove something to a committee that’s clearly stopped believing. Because right now, their biggest opponent isn’t on the field. It’s the perception in that CFP room, and that’s a tougher game to win than any Saturday matchup.