There’s always noise in college football realignment, but sometimes, that noise starts to feel a little different, more like a drumbeat. And right now, that beat seems to be echoing out of Chapel Hill. The whispers are getting louder, and the insiders are beginning to weigh in. You’ve heard the speculation before, but this time, there’s a little more behind it than just message board smoke. 

If you’re a Tar Heel fan, a Bill Belichick fan, or just a college football chaos enthusiast, it’s worth paying attention. One of the sport’s most well-known voices just gave the clearest indication yet that something’s brewing. Not tomorrow. Maybe not next season. But soon enough, those folks across the South, and beyond, might want to start preparing.

Paul Finebaum dropped a notable update on the long-speculated North Carolina-to-SEC rumors while speaking on McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning on 94.5 JoxFM. When asked about the recent noise surrounding the Tar Heels potentially heading to the Southeastern Conference, Finebaum made it clear that the whispers aren’t coming from SEC leadership—but rather from Chapel Hill. “It sounds very much to me like people close to North Carolina are floating this out there,” Finebaum explained. He pointed to frustration within the ACC, even though the league is putting up a united front for now. “Even though the ACC is now singing kumbaya, we all know that there are a lot of anxious schools in there.”

Finebaum was cautious about implicating SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, making it clear that Sankey is staying above the fray. “He has not spoken formally or informally to anyone. That’s just not how he works,” Finebaum said, but he didn’t hold back on the main point. “I think ultimately it’s going to happen,” he said. “North Carolina has always been the number one choice of many people in SEC circles.” While no exact timeline is set, Finebaum hinted that UNC is exploring ways to make the move more financially feasible down the road.

What’s still up in the air is when it’ll happen and who might come along with them. “I think the bigger question is when exactly does it happen, and secondly, who would their drafting partner be?” Finebaum asked. The idea of a pairing suggests a potential tandem expansion move, which has become common in modern realignment. For now, North Carolina remains anchored in the ACC, but if Finebaum’s instincts are right, and they usually are, it’s only a matter of time before Chapel Hill trades Tobacco Road for Saturday nights in Tuscaloosa.

The financial hurdle to freedom

For UNC, the road out of the ACC still comes with a steep toll, one that ACC commissioner Jim Phillips believes will keep the Tar Heels, Tigers, and Seminoles in check for the foreseeable future. As part of the settlement resolving lawsuits with both schools, a new exit-fee structure was implemented: $165 million in 2026, decreasing by $18 million annually until it levels off at $75 million in 2030–31. That’s still a staggering sum, even for schools eyeing the financial windfall of a potential move to the SEC or Big Ten.

Phillips, speaking at ACC media days, didn’t mince words about the deterrent those numbers provide. “As far as an exit fee, I mean, it’s still a really significant number, and higher than most conferences,” he told Front Office Sports. “So, I don’t really look at that piece of it, but it’s been talked about so much that I feel like I have to answer that.” In other words, the ACC commissioner isn’t concerned with the speculation; he’s betting the math still works in the conference’s favor.

Even as realignment rumors swirl and timelines are drawn based on the declining buyout figures, Phillips is preaching stability. “I really do [feel comfortable with 17 teams], and I think everybody in college sports wants to see it settle down,” he said. “At the end of the day, we got to a place that the entire league felt good about, and it can never be about a school or two. It has to be about what’s in the best interest of the ACC.” Whether that tune holds a few years from now when those exit fees drop to more digestible numbers remains to be seen.