The first ploy is that the Indiana Hoosiers are going to need a whole lot of rally towels for the 2025 season after reaching a pair of ticket sale milestones ahead of their season opener against Old Dominion. Hoosiers’ head coach, Curt Cignetti, is ready for the showdown. He isn’t interested in nostalgia or excuses, wants his players to ‘rip off the rearview mirror’ and not look back. But in light of the new changes in the way of evaluation of teams, veteran ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum, who was never a Cignetti fan, showed that Cignetti’s struggle could be a facade. And this time, he might be right…

The CFP confirmed this summer that it will introduce enhanced metrics for 2025, bringing schedule strength and record strength into sharper focus. That means it’s not just about stacking wins but proving quality against legitimate opponents. Paul Finebaum suspected why Curt Cignetti added more games for future, with a shot, “Curt Cignetti keeps running his mouth like an over overflowing faucet. Can you explain how legitimately big-time schools that went to the playoff last year can get away with this?” Games added for next year are with Howard, Miami of Ohio. This year, of course, Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State. They’ve added Howard, Colorado State, and Western Kentucky in 27, Indiana State, UMass, Austin Peay, and Miami of Ohio. The IU alum Heather Dinich broke it down on The Paul Finebaum Show, explaining why dominance only gets you so far.

“Well, the one thing that is important to remember is that if you’re playing a weak schedule, I think one thing we learned last year is you better win convincingly, because at some point sheer dominance is hard to ignore. And when you look at Indiana last year, number two in points per game, number one in scoring margin, that’s the kind of thing that catches the committee’s attention. I don’t care who you’re playing if you’re beating them by 30 points a game every single week, that’s going to impress some people in that room.” Finebaum wasn’t impressed. He fired back in classic fashion: Why should it impress someone that you beat Kennesaw State by 40 points? Meanwhile, Alabama’s playing Wisconsin and Clemson’s playing LSU or Georgia last year. “I just don’t understand the logic of beating somebody to death that’s a tomato can while the other guy is playing a heavyweight.”

Dinich conceded the point. “That’s totally fair. Their strength of schedule on selection day was 68th in the country. No wins against top 25 opponents. And had this been in previous years, I don’t think Indiana would have been ranked as high as they were. But when you look at how they were winning, there were people in the room who respected that. Now, the fact that they lost the two biggest games they played to Notre Dame and to Ohio State, that speaks volumes as well.” That’s Paul—half-biting analyst, half showman—but his underlying point hits home: Indiana’s margin-stuffing ways aren’t going to pass the sniff test under the new system. If the Indiana Hoosiers continue feasting on mid-majors while stumbling against bluebloods, their playoff dreams will dissolve under the weight of those metrics.

Curt Cignetti, for his part, is steering into a different lane. He uses gestures as metaphors for where he wants the program to go—his right hand moving up and down, describing Indiana’s rollercoaster nature; his arm stretching skyward to symbolize raising the bar. It’s an image easy to picture, the coach trying to literally elevate the standard. The Hoosiers open the season ranked No. 20 in the AP poll, but Cignetti knows that’s not the destination. His message has been clear: focus on situational moments, prepare every phase—offense, defense, special teams—for when the season tilts. He doesn’t want Indiana defined by noise or critics.

Last year, when the whole CFB world was swept up in the Curt Cignetti hype train as Indiana entered the CFP undefeated, Finebaum was the lone voice calling Curt overrated. That skepticism feels prescient now. Indiana’s ploy of a weaker schedule to make it easy for them, what the pundit pointed at, is, however, met with a stricter rule. If you try to play easy games, you aren’t going anywhere.

Curt Cignetti’s worst nightmare: CFP’s new math

Curt Cignetti’s little ploy of leaning on a cupcake-loaded non-conference slate just ran headfirst into the CFP’s new rules of the road. The committee confirmed this week that starting with the 2025 season, it will rely on enhanced metrics that put teeth behind what coaches and fans have whispered about for years—strength of schedule isn’t just a talking point anymore, it’s a data-driven calculation that can sink or save you. The first rankings will drop on November 4, and for teams like Indiana, the timing couldn’t be worse.

According to the CFP, the new system will place more weight on how teams fare against quality opponents. Translation? Beating Kennesaw State by 40 points won’t carry much currency if you stumble against Notre Dame or Ohio State. Wins over weaklings will be treated as little more than filler, while losses to those same teams will now burn hotter than ever. “All of these modifications will help the selection committee as they rank the top 25 teams. We feel these changes will help construct a postseason bracket that recognizes the best performances and teams on the field during the regular season, and I want to thank our veteran selection committee members and data analytics groups for helping implement these changes,” CFP executive director Rich Clark said in a statement.

The addition of “record strength” is particularly fascinating. It doesn’t just look at who you lined up against but how you fared against them. In short: no more hiding behind padded margins.