Rhett Lashlee would’ve been a 2-time playoff qualifier if the CFP bracket expansion had happened in 2023. SMU published the same score, 11-3, as that year in 2024, and they were off to the playoffs, shocking college football. Once an underdog team, the Mustangs’ 2025 campaign will be under the microscope this season. Head coach Lashlee has to prove that his 2024 accomplishments were not beginner’s luck by making the playoffs this year, too. Analyst Josh Pate, however, has a harsh reality check for SMU.

When it comes to the ACC, you would expect the one team to always make it to the playoffs to be Clemson. Joining Clemson would be a program like Miami. Instead, Clemson was joined by Rhett Lashlee’s SMU – a program-first feat for the Mustangs. He managed to do that in his first season in the ACC. SMU went unbeaten in the regular season, falling to Clemson in the conference title game. They lost early to Baylor and then to Penn State in the playoffs. That’s how high the ceiling for Lashlee and SMU is, probably for the first time since the Bobby Collins era.

Josh Pate, however, thinks maybe SMU will not be that great this season. “It’s far more likely they’re worse. They got a tougher schedule this year than they did last year. We were talking about them, I mean, we were talking about them as being the prime sleeper contender merely because of schedule [in 2024],” Pate said in a July 11 video of his namesake show. Then, he listed a slew of problem areas for Lashlee. “3 of the top 4 wide receivers are gone. The schedule gets a little bit tougher. Defensive tackle, question. Edge, question,” he added.

SMU will face Clemson at Death Valley, and their fiercest rivals, TCU, away from home. Then come the Miami and Louisville games. This season, the Cardinals also seem to be gaining traction as a wildcard surprise. SMU can no longer get that claim. Sure, the offense is returning with its star, Kevin Jennings. But will he be able to pull off upsets against the mights of Cade Klubnik and Carson Beck? On the defense, SMU will lack the seasoned geniuses of Elijah Roberts, Jared Harrison-Hunte, and Jahfari Harvey. SMU’s fairytale run to the playoffs last year was because of the schedule.

But Pate’s idea of worse didn’t mean that Rhett Lashlee’s 2025 campaign was going to tank. “They could go 10-2. They could be playing for the conference title again, and I’d be right,” the analyst declared. Perhaps SMU’s biggest problem is that it can’t shock college football teams anymore. They are a squad whose strengths and weaknesses are now being closely assessed by opponents, so that they are not caught by surprise.

Rhett Lashlee can no longer play mind games on opponents

You can only be a one-hit wonder once, right? SMU has exhausted that advantage, and now, Rhett Lashlee has to ensure that SMU’s revival under him sees the end of the tunnel after this season. The program sparked a clamor by advancing to the playoffs, when other programs like Ole Miss and Baylor were snubbed, despite having double-digit wins. ESPN’s Tom Luginbill thinks that Coach Lashlee now has no cover to hide the Mustangs’ potential from others. And that could be a problem.

He said in a June 24 episode of the Crain & Company podcast, “It’s all psychological, because they’re not sneaking up on anybody this time around. Nobody knew about Kevin Jennings before, everybody knows about Kevin Jennings now, and to me, what Rhett Lashlee’s primary focus has to be coaching this football team is not buying into the press clippings, not listening to everybody patting you on the back, telling you how good you are.” Jennings stands a chance to cross 4,000 yards this season, based on his capabilities and last year’s assessments. However, his opponents will now be prepared for the attack.

SMU’s opponents tolerated the shock once, but they won’t set themselves up for the same result this season. Florida State looks good this year, and so do Miami and Clemson. Lashlee’s squad upset some important opponents last year. However, now they’re all prepared. Can Lashlee pull off the unthinkable by going further than where everyone expects them to go?