It’s not supposed to feel this uncertain in July. Not when you’re a Power 4 program. Not after being a preseason Top 25 team just 11 months ago—especially after a 10-win 2023. But here we are. Arizona’s fanbase isn’t dreaming of a Big 12 title; they’re praying for the bare minimum: a bowl game. Because in just a few weeks, the Wildcats will kick off their 2025 season under Brent Brennan—with a roster overhaul, a new set of coordinators, and a 22-year history of midseason firings staring right back at them.

Let’s back it up a little. Arizona finished the 2024 season with a faceplant. A 4–8 record. Just 2 Big 12 wins. A humiliating 49–7 beatdown from Arizona State. And that 10-win magic from Jedd Fisch’s 2023 campaign? Vaporized the second he bolted for Washington. Brennan was brought in from San Jose State to keep things from falling apart, but last year’s offense flatlined—21.8 points per game, 114th in the nation. The defense? Also cooked. Pass defense ranked outside the top 100. It was ugly. With Tetairoa McMillan, and Jonah Savaiinaea off to the NFL, there’s isn’t much left. So, why should you believe this is a bowl team? Damon Fairall from the ‘AZ Wildcats’ podcast summed it up in three reasons on July 19th. Let’s break ‘em down.

First up: Seth Doege. This off-season, Brent Brennan brought in Seth Doege as OC and promoted Danny Gonzales to DC. Fairall didn’t dance around it. “Top three reasons they will make a bowl game. Number one: Seth Doege is him. It’s simple. I wish you’d put a period at the end of it—Kevin should’ve. Damn it. Because that’s what I really meant when I said it,” said Fairall. Doege isn’t some rah-rah retread.

The man led Marshall’s offense to a 10–3 record and a Sun Belt title last season, averaging 32 points and over 200 rushing yards a game. His system blends Air Raid with smashmouth concepts—a wild combo that actually works. Doege played under Mike Leach and coached with Lane Kiffin and Lincoln Riley. This guy’s cooked in a few different kitchens. And now he’s working with Noah Fifita, who called Doege “the best offensive mind I’ve been around”.

The Wildcats’ offense last year had zero identity. It was just: find Tetairoa McMillan and pray. Now, Arizona finally has a playcaller who doesn’t treat the run game like an optional add-on. Brennan said it best: “I just think that if Seth Doege hits what I think his ceiling could be, that is the biggest reason that Arizona goes from being unwatchable last season to being a competitive team in the Big 12 this season.” Translation: he might actually fix this.

Now, Reason No. 2: That secondary might just cook. Fairall tossed out another sleeper take: “Moving on. I thought this was kind of a fun one—I cooked this one up, Kevin, in my brain, and wanted to discuss it with you. I think this DB room needs to be in the top five in the Big 12 next year, and there’s a multitude of reasons and a bunch of layers as to why,” said Fairfall.

It’s a bold call, sure, considering Arizona got torched through the air last season. 239 passing yards allowed per game. 64% completion rate allowed. 8.1 yards per attempt. Every metric was cooked. But the context matters. The secondary was basically a triage unit by October. Genesis Smith was the lone constant. Jacob Manu got hurt. Dalton Johnson had to play linebacker. Treydan Stukes and Gunner Maldonado missed time. Tacario Davis was mentally out the door.

Now? They’re back healthy. Plus Brennan raided the portal for more depth—guys like Jay’Vion Cole, Jshawn Frausto-Ramos, and Michael Dansby. And for once, there’s continuity on the back end. Danny Gonzales’s simplified scheme could be the glue that holds it together. If the DBs gel and avoid another injury plague, this unit could flip from liability to lifeline. The defense won’t need to be elite—just competent. Competent wins you games in the Big 12 if the offense does its job.

And Reason No. 3: the O-line’s got new dogs. Arizona’s offensive line last season? Let’s just say Noah Fifita didn’t exactly sleep well. He was sacked 26 times. The unit was leaky, inconsistent, and straight-up undermanned after injuries and NFL departures. Losing Jonah Savaiinaea was a body blow. Fairall put it bluntly: “I think you need to see this offensive line—offensive line find some early chemistry here because you have so many new faces…Last season’s offensive line had no feel of seeing ghosts. Like Fifita was genuinely—not going to say scared—but he was genuinely tentative in the pocket for the first time in his probably entire football career.” This offseason, Brennan didn’t sit on his hands.

He signed more than 6 new linemen—portal veterans like Ty Buchanan (Texas Tech), Tristan Bounds (Michigan), and Jordan Brown (Georgia Tech), plus JUCO standouts. The projected starting five has four new faces, with Alex Doost being the lone returner. That’s a massive gamble—but it’s one Brennan had to take. The only thing standing between Brent Brennan and a bowl bid now? 22 years of ghosts saying, “Not so fast.”

History is betting against Brent Brennan

Here’s where it gets tricky. Arizona isn’t just rebooting after a 4–8 season. They’re breaking the pattern of a very specific, very haunting trend in school history: replacing both coordinators in one offseason… and watching it all burn down. Remember 2003? John Mackovic brought in Mike Deal (fresh from NFL Europe) and Mike Hankwitz. Arizona went 2–10. Mackovic? Fired mid-season. Then there was 2010. Mike Stoops lost Sonny Dykes and brother Mark Stoops in the same offseason. Promoted Seth Littrell and Tim Kish. A year later? Fired. Midseason.

Even legends like Dick Tomey and Larry Smith never had to replace both coordinators in one shot. That kind of staff shake-up at Arizona tends to light the match, not stop the fire. And now, here’s Brennan. Year 2. Doege in. Gonzales promoted. Roster churned. ESPN’s SP+ model projects 5.4 wins. FPI pegs them at 5–7. A sub-50% chance to hit bowl eligibility. The numbers aren’t forgiving. But this is where Brennan can rewrite the script.

Brennan’s not dragging some stale scheme from the 90s. He’s not hoping an NFL Europe OC can figure out Big 12 speed. He hired guys who’ve coached under national title winners. Is it enough to go bowling? Maybe. Is it enough to avoid becoming the next Mackovic or Stoops? That’s the bigger question. Arizona doesn’t need to win the Big 12. They just need to win 6 or 7 games. Steal one early, maybe flip one late. The path’s narrow, but it’s there. And for a program haunted by its own history, that might be all Brennan needs to prove this story won’t end like the others.