The Kansas City Chiefs are off to a shaky 2-2 start through four weeks, and the play hasn’t been up to their championship standard. For a team accustomed to dominance, inconsistency is causing red flags to fly. Their inconsistency, if unchecked, can make their quest for another deep playoff run extremely difficult.

An unsettling trend is building that makes Patrick Mahomes’ job more difficult than ever. The Chiefs’ nine-year reign at the top of the AFC West is more at risk, and playoff hopes this season aren’t quite as rosy as they have been in the past. One of the reasons is that the Buffalo Bills remain unbeaten with a soft schedule ahead of them, putting them well on their way to capturing the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Whereas, glancing ahead at the forthcoming schedule, Kansas City is on a much more difficult path.

Compounding the pressure are projections from The Athletic’s Austin Mock, who pitted preseason models against current reality. The preseason odds gave us 83% for the Chiefs to make it to the playoffs. Now? 68%. And the Super Bowl odds aren’t any better, seeing a drop from 11.2 to 5.2.

The verdict is clear: Kansas City’s playoff chances are slipping. Their early missteps, coupled with the rise of conference contenders, inform the Chiefs that they are no longer as much in control of their destiny as they once were. It does not help that they have had to fight through roster letdowns and an offense still searching for balance.

Naturally, Mahomes remains the center. He has taken much of the load as the team struggled through suspensions and injuries to the wide receiver. Scrambling has been part of his game this year as he looked for ways to compensate for missing targets. Nevertheless, Mahomes himself admits that the tactic has downsides. As he continues to work on developing his style, fans will be watching closely to see if Kansas City’s fortunes change.

The road ahead is all the more challenging with a dinged-up roster. Cornerback Kristian Fulton and defensive end Mike Danna are questionable for upcoming games, depriving the defense of much-needed depth. Wide receiver Rashee Rice remains suspended, and safety Nazeeh Johnson and linebacker Brandon George both find themselves on injured reserve. For an offense already desperately trying to establish rhythm, these losses make it that much harder for Mahomes to attempt to find some stability.

Patrick Mahomes makes adjustments

While the disturbing beginning presents a somber scene, Mahomes has already indicated that he is continuing to develop in ways that can rewrite the script. During the first two weeks, he scrambled more than in any season in his past, doubling his historical career-high percentage from 2023.

His scramble rate has increased to over 15% of plays from his career average of 6.2%. Against the Chargers in Week 1, he rushed for a team-leading 57 yards, and then another 66 yards against the Eagles, both games in which the running backs were out-gained by their quarterback.

But Mahomes is not passing the buck. Rather, he is taking responsibility for the issues, admitting that constant scrambling isn’t the brightest long-term strategy. He labored during the offseason, holding himself accountable, working to refine his pocket presence and believes in his line even more consistently. That adjustment is starting to pay off.

Xavier Worthy returned in Week 4, and he led the Chiefs in receiving (career-high 83 yards) and rushing yards (career-high 38), and Tyquan Thornton emerged. Mahomes was one of his top passers of the season, setting the stage for a more well-rounded way forward.

The Chiefs’ offense is brighter heading into the future with reinforcements on the horizon. Rashee Rice will be back in two weeks, and the line incrementally has built Mahomes’ confidence. As long as he keeps calming his feet in the pocket while wisely using his scrambling ability, the balance could unleash the best version of Mahomes yet.

For Chiefs fans, the news is both bad and positive. Yes, the trends are making the road rougher than expected, and rivals like the Bills are closing the gap. But Mahomes’ ability to adjust and assume responsibility could be the season-changing factor. If the modifications pan out, the last three-fourths of the season might expose a Mahomes more deadly than ever before.